Democrats might be headed towards a blue wave victory over the GOP in November. But the party’s problems are far from fixed.

That’s the warning a new Democratic research initiative is issuing. The group, dubbed Project 270, conducted polling that found that 2028 general election voters across seven battleground states are dissatisfied by Republicans and the GOP’s broader ideological lurch to the right when considering who they’ll pick on their presidential ballot two years from now. But those same voters still have a host of problems with the Democrats.

The group’s first survey found a majority of voters outright rejecting a potential MAGA movement candidate, with 56% of registered voters across seven swing states claiming it would be bad for the country if the next GOP nominee follows in President Donald Trump’s footsteps, including 63% of independents.

But it also found the generic ballot for president tied: 45% of voters said they would back a Democrat in 2028, while 45% said they would pick a Republican. Both parties’ brands are underwater, and even voters who don’t like Trump aren’t sold. While 68% of independents have an unfavorable view of Trump, just 35% say they plan to vote Democratic in 2028. (A mere 23% say they’ll back the Republican.)

“We are not rose-colored glasses here. We want to win, and that means understanding what the challenges are,” said Molly Murphy, the president of Impact Research, one of the Democratic pollsters who conducted the survey. “They don’t like Republicans. That is an opportunity. That is an opening. They do not like the leadership they’ve seen, but that doesn’t mean that they’re going to go migrating to Democrats and begin to have an affinity for them. Democrats are going to have to earn it.”

The message is shared across much of the party’s infrastructure. The politically disengaged voters who turned sharply against the party in 2024 simply aren’t voting in the midterms, making it difficult for Democrats to know if they’ve improved with this subgroup. And top party leaders are warning about the work left to be done.

“We should understand that we’re sort of the rebound boyfriend,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told The Washington Sun this week, referring to how voters are viewing the Democrats ahead of the midterms. “They’re going to give us a first date. They’re not trying to marry us. They are just sort of being forced into our arms.”

Project 270 is spearheaded by veteran party strategists Rahna Epting and Xochitl Hinojosa and is aiming to keep the party focused on winning the next presidential election, even during what’s likely to be a rambunctious and divisive presidential primary.

“We know the presidential conversation is already full of primary polling: Who’s up? Who’s down? And what’s missing are the questions that will decide the race,” Epting said. “Where are the voters in the swing states that will determine who our next president will be? What is our starting point with them? What opportunities are there?”

Pollsters from Impact Research, HIT Strategies and Equis worked with Project 270 on the poll, which surveyed voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. One of its starkest findings? Real vulnerabilities from former President Joe Biden’s administration linger with Black and Latino voters.

While a majority of Black voters approve of the party (68% favorability), Black men of younger generations seem increasingly frustrated with the party. Just 49% of Black men under 40 have a favorable opinion of the party, while 45% have an unfavorable opinion.

“As they age into the largest voting bloc among Black voters. This is going to be a significant problem for Democrats,” said Joshua Doss of HIT Strategies, who also noted a majority of Black women, one of the party’s core voting blocs, believe their vote is being taken for granted.

The party sees increased negativity with Latino voters, with only 45% seeing Democrats as favorable, and majorities of Latino subgroups — Latino men, Latino men under 40 and Latino men over 40 — see the party as unfavorable.

Maria Isabel Di Franco Quiñonez of Equis attributed the weaknesses to “Biden baggage.”

“That decrease in support for Democrats that we saw back in 2024, and those real frustrations around the Biden administration, that baggage is still playing a greater role among Latino voters,” she said.

There was good news for the Democrats: Republicans are no longer seen as the more competent stewards of economic issues, the poll finds. A plurality of these voters (40%) say the GOP has the “wrong ideas about how to run the economy well” and another 28% say while the party has the know-how, they are prioritizing other goals over the economy.

And majorities also want to change course on a host of other policy areas the GOP championed over the last few elections, with voters wishing to “chart a different path” from the current handling of living costs, the role of large corporations, healthcare, tariffs, big tech and AI, among others. A very narrow majority (51%) say Republicans are focused on issues that matter to only a few people, like those in power, insiders or the president himself.

“Voters are ready to turn the page on Trump and MAGA,” Murphy said.

The poll was conducted from September 14-23, with a full sample margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

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