JACKSON, Miss. — Scott Colom likes his odds.

“I think I’m gonna win. I really, truly believe I’m gonna win,” Colom told HuffPost over flash-fried Maine lobster tails and fried jumbo Gulf shrimp and fries at Johnny T’s Bistro & Blues. “Everything’s lined up at the right moment for me.”

It was unclear if Colom’s moment would ever come. Democrats, both nationally and in the state, had spent months insisting Mississippi was a sleeper race in the battle for the Senate, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) repeatedly telling donors to invest there. Colom was a strong candidate while his opponent, GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, is universally regarded as underwhelming; the state’s media markets were cheap enough for an easy investment.

But over those many months, there were few signs the race in a deep-red state with one of the nation’s most conservative electorates was actually close.

Until now. Both parties’ major Senate super PACs have put more than $1 million into the race in the past few days. Democratic surrogates, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, have descended on the state. President Donald Trump is set to campaign for Hyde-Smith on Monday. Suddenly, Colom becoming the first Black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction is a live possibility.

He’s still a clear underdog: The Cook Political Report, one of the most prominent election forecasters, moved the race to “likely Republican” rather than grant it “lean” or “toss up” status. But the fact that Democrats believe Colom, a 43-year-old district attorney and father of two, could build on a series of stronger-than-usual campaigns in Mississippi and actually knock off Hyde-Smith in a state Trump won by 22 points is a vivid display of how far the president’s political standing has fallen and how ambitious Democrats have become in the run-up to the midterms.

Hyde-Smith’s campaign continued to project confidence as the race tightens, even as she welcomed Trump’s campaign stop.

“Mississippians know her record: billions brought home for infrastructure and rural health care; conservative judges confirmed and liberal ones blocked; tax relief for working families and small businesses; a secure border; and votes that keep men out of girls’ sports and locker rooms,” said Jake Monssen, her campaign manager. “Scott Colom is bankrolled by the radical left because he is in lockstep with their agenda. He supports tax increases, open borders, taxpayer benefits for illegal immigrants, and sex change surgeries for minors.”

She has also so far declined to debate Colom, so the Democrat challenged Trump to a debate when he is in town on Monday.

“He promised the people of Mississippi ‘America First.’ He’s delivered ‘Mississippi Last,’” Colom said of Trump, hitting him on a series of broken promises. “You promised you’re going to look out for the farmers. Well, tariffs have been terrible. You promised no more endless wars. We’re back at war with no end in sight. You lied.”

He continued: “You betrayed your voters, and instead of looking out for them, you’re looking out for yourself. You made 2.2 billion dollars on a crypto scheme. You got a private jet for Qatar. How’s that benefiting Mississippians?”

“I want to debate him. I’m ready to go,” Colom declared giddily.

Colom’s moment has been a long time coming. He said just four people showed up to the first town hall he held in Jackson during his campaign.

“And I just kept going,” he said. “I kept doing town halls, and people started to say, ‘Man, this guy is really out there. He’s really trying to listen to us. He’s going to the music festival. He’s going to the housing project. He’s actually showing up in a way that we haven’t seen in a long time.’”

Things began to shift, in Colom’s estimation, after his team released an ad skewering Hyde-Smith’s suggestion that voters pick other proteins at the grocery store due to the rising cost of beef. Colom’s ad shows voters opting to “pick another senator instead.”

The ad went viral, with over 2 million views on X.

“When I did the ad, I wasn’t thinking about the grandma that watched the news, right? I was thinking about the young person that doesn’t listen to politics, doesn’t pay attention to political ads. But how do I get that person’s attention? Do something edgy, something that feels different.”

And he’s had some reinforcements. Democrats like Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, and Raphael Warnock have joined Colom on the stump. Former President Barack Obama has backed his candidacy. On Thursday, Harris was up to bat, joining Colom for a rural roundtable and a rally in Columbus, near the Alabama border.

“We are on the verge of making a statement not only about who we are as Americans, who you are as Mississippians, but also the kind of future that we want for our children, for our families, for our parents and grandparents, for the ancestors that we honor. We are able right now to make a statement,” Harris said to a riled-up crowd peppered with many women adorned in her Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority’s pink and green.

She added: “Let’s take these next 12 days and do everything in our power, every minute and hour and moment we have, let’s remind people of their power. The power is with the people, and the people are with Scott.”

“Maybe I’m being naive, but I’m gonna keep on this optimistic train that we’re going to show the world on November 3 what Mississippi can do.”

Colom is pitching himself as district attorney with a high conviction rate, a politician who is able to speak to voters across party lines. He’s praised Trump’s border policies and broken with Democrats on trans women’s participation in sports. Hyde-Smith’s team, instead, paints him as the preferred candidate of the far left.

But Colom doesn’t find campaigning with Harris — or other national Democrats for that matter — the third rail some may suppose this could be in such a red state. He thinks that presumption misunderstands voters, and that voters may begin to question why national Democrats are showing up in ways he believes Hyde-Smith is not.

“The real question is, why does Senator Warnock care about healthcare and hospitals more than Cindy Hyde-Smith?” Colom asked. “That’s the real question. Why does Pete Buttigieg care more about these roads and bridges in Jackson than Senator Hyde-Smith?”

Glenn Antizzo, a history and political science professor at Mississippi Christian University, said Hyde-Smith does have political vulnerabilities: The “pick another protein” message highlights her propensity for gaffes, and she is liked less in the state than her senior counterpart, Roger Wicker.

“Mississippi tends to look at politics as a team sport in a way, and you know you may not like the players on your team, but you don’t hate them enough to want to see the other team win,” Antizzo added.

Democrats’ chances in the state have long been bedeviled by its intense racial polarization: While the state has the largest percentage of Black registered voters anywhere in the country, they are nonetheless outnumbered by conservative white voters.

But recent elections in the state have given Democrats hope they can finally solve the befuddling math of winning here: Former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy lost to Hyde-Smith in a 2018 runoff by just seven points, then former state Attorney General Jim Hood lost the 2019 governor’s race by just five points. Finally, Brenden Presley (yes, he’s related to Elvis) lost the governor’s race in 2023 by just 27,000 votes.

The increasing competitiveness of the state could continue into next year, when the governor’s race will be open. Colom told HuffPost he just doesn’t see, “under any circumstances,” a run for governor in the cards for him if he loses.

“God will really have to call me to do that,” he said. “I don’t see that happening. I don’t see that happening.”

There is the question, of course, of whether Colom’s moment is coming too late. State Rep. Zakiya Summers, who represents Jackson, said national Democrats needed to spend directly earlier on.

“We were disappointed that we did not get the level of support from some of the national, like the DNC and the other PACs,” said Summers, adding: “I think that it is a disservice to our state, and is a consequence that we aren’t putting money where we could actually have lasting, impactful change.”

But she’s not discouraged: “Maybe I’m being naive, but I’m gonna keep on this optimistic train that we’re going to show the world on November 3 what Mississippi can do ... and they will see that your dollars, when you invest in Mississippi, they don’t go to waste.”

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