Another leg up in gas prices to begin September underscores the political headwind that President Trump and Republicans face on the issue, with less than seven weeks left before the midterm elections.

The average price of US regular gasoline was $4.32 per gallon last Monday, according to the latest weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a nearly $0.25 rise over the last two weeks.

The EIA data, which goes back to 1990, also shows that gas prices are the highest they've ever been at this stage in any recent election cycle, according to a Yahoo Finance analysis.

The second-highest price on record at this point — 49 days from an election — came in 2012 when gas cost $3.88 per gallon. The third-highest price was $3.65 in 2022. Both were election years when a Democratic administration was in power, and Republicans put a heavy focus on the issue of pump prices.

"Gas prices are at crazy levels--fire Obama!" then private citizen Donald Trump posted to social media back in 2012.

With Trump now in office, gas prices are being pushed up by a variety of factors, including both the wars in Iran and Ukraine, and they're hitting as Trump has few options to lower them due to widening disruptions in the Middle East and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at historically low levels after months of withdrawals.

Diesel, which broke through all-time high prices earlier this month and hit another record high last Tuesday, is yet another economic headwind.

The historical data also shows that prices tend to decline in the run-up to election day — in keeping with fall trends — but this year may be an outlier.

Nonpartisan energy analysts are downplaying the chances of significant price easing in the weeks or months ahead.

"In a typical year, the consumer would see a seasonal decline in gasoline prices as refiners switched from the more expensive summer grade gasoline to the less expensive winter grade formulation," Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told Yahoo Finance.

But "this has been anything but a typical year," he said, noting that substantial price increases in gasoline and diesel could be felt across a range of consumer goods and are "wiping out the season savings that the consumer has come to expect."

GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan added in a recent blog post that the transition to cheaper winter-blend gasoline may help some, but "the scale of ongoing geopolitical escalations makes meaningful price relief unlikely in the near term." 

"Motorists should brace for continued volatility ahead."

Current gas prices are more than 35% higher than the $3.18 level where they sat at this stage of the 2024 election, when then-candidate Donald Trump regularly assailed Democrats over the issue.

"We're going to bring your energy prices down," Trump promised at a campaign event almost exactly two years ago, one of countless times he slammed the Biden administration over the issue.

In recent days, he has repeated his frequent promises of relief at the pump, saying oil prices will "drop like a rock" when the war in Iran ends and insisting that Ukraine needs to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries.

The president briefly drove down diesel prices last Monday with a Truth Social post that claimed both Ukraine and Russia had agreed to stop hitting energy targets. But the relief was short-lived when energy strikes from both countries continued.

Last Tuesday saw another all-time record price for diesel, according to the American Automobile Association, at an average of nearly $6.27 per gallon.

Trump is left with few options. Measures like restrictions on US oil exports energy experts have long suggested could backfire.

Some Trump aides have downplayed the chances of an export ban, but the possibility is being closely watched.

Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities, in a note to clients, said an export ban could cut prices in the short term but lead to further price increases if refiners cut their capacity in response.

Such a move, he said, would be akin to a "bomb being dropped on the global Economy."

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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