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Guggenheim's Shahriar Pourreza targets $300 for VST, implying ~119% upside, anchored by nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta covering over 3,800 MW.

CEG, NRG, and TLN each dropped over 20% YTD alongside VST, pointing to sector-wide selling rather than company-specific problems.

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Vistra (NYSE:VST) trades at $137.09, while the Wall Street consensus price target sits at $217.42. That implies roughly 59% upside from current levels.

Vistra runs one of the country's largest merchant generation fleets, spanning nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage. Its pivot toward serving hyperscale data centers, headlined by nuclear deals with AWS and Meta and a new joint venture with NVIDIA and KKR, made the stock a marquee AI power name (we pulled together seven companies powering the AI buildout beyond the chipmakers in a free report here).

One Wall Street firm is looking well past consensus: Guggenheim's Shahriar Pourreza carries a $300 target on VST, implying roughly 119% upside. The gulf between price and target frames the rest of this piece.

VST has fallen for most of 2026. Shares are down 14.78% year to date and 29.93% over the trailing year, badly trailing the S&P 500's 12.82% YTD gain.

Q2 2026 revenue came in at $4.02 billion, down 5.5% YoY, and GAAP net income slipped to $305 million from $327 million. Those numbers absorbed $472 million in unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivative hedges. Underlying Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA climbed more than 30% YoY to $1.77 billion, with Texas segment EBITDA more than doubling to $311 million.

The real overhang is the 2027 outlook. Management flagged "meaningfully lower" ERCOT forward curves and said Vistra would trend toward the low end of its $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion 2027 EBITDA range, resetting expectations across the AI power complex.

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Analysts see structural upside that a soft forward curve does not touch. Of the 20 analysts covering VST, 4 rate it Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. Recent action has skewed toward reiterations rather than cuts.

Guggenheim's $300 call anchors the aggressive end. Pourreza's thesis rests on long-term PPAs with hyperscalers seeking nuclear and gas generation, plus rising capacity market pricing across PJM and ERCOT. The commercial setup includes a 20-year AWS PPA for up to 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak, Meta PPAs covering more than 2,600 MW across PJM nuclear sites, the pending 5,500 MW Cogentrix acquisition, and the new Helix Digital Infrastructure JV with NVIDIA, KKR, and Kuwait Investment Authority, with Vistra as preferred power provider and up to $1.0 billion committed.

Management said Cogentrix and the Meta PPAs alone could add roughly $700 million to the 2027 EBITDA midpoint, both currently excluded from guidance. Layer in ~$1.2 billion in remaining buyback authorization through year-end 2027, plus 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion, and the analyst case reads as a growth story trading like a value stock. CEO Jim Burke told investors: "We are confident in our ability to deliver at or above the midpoint."

The peer group fell as a unit. Constellation, NRG, and Talen each surrendered more than 20% year to date alongside VST.

Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) trades near $276.75, down 21.31% YTD, versus a $348.30 consensus target for about 26% upside.

NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) sits at $111.12, off 29.54% YTD, with a $188.75 target implying nearly 70% upside. Ratings show 3 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 2 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell after a Q2 EPS miss tied to LS Power integration costs.

Talen Energy (NASDAQ:TLN) trades at $296.11, down 21% YTD, against a $459.94 target for roughly 55% upside.

The largest consensus upside sits with NRG, but Guggenheim's VST call is the boldest single target in the group.

VST's $217.42 consensus target against a $137.09 quote works out to roughly 59% upside, with Guggenheim's bull case near 119%. Coverage is lopsided to buys: 19 of 20 analysts carry a Buy or Strong Buy rating.

VST is down 14.78% YTD and 29.93% over 12 months, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.82% YTD. Shares trade at a trailing P/E of 23 and a forward P/E of 16 on TTM EPS of $5.93. That is a modest multiple for a company guiding to over $6.8 billion in 2026 EBITDA.

The bull case works if the AI power capex cycle stays intact and Cogentrix closes without material concessions. Free cash flow is real, buybacks compound at a depressed multiple, and the AWS, Meta, and Helix relationships provide visibility that pure merchants cannot match. In that world, Guggenheim's $300 is aggressive but defensible.

The bear case takes hold if ERCOT forwards keep sliding into 2027 and hyperscaler capex pauses. VST's 2028 book is only 72% hedged, so power price weakness bleeds into results. Mark-to-market noise, Moss Landing decommissioning costs, and Cogentrix integration remain live risks.

On balance, I lean cautiously bullish. Consensus $217.42 is the base underwrite. Guggenheim's $300 is the reward for being early if data-center demand keeps pulling generation forward. Sub-$140, the risk-reward finally looks better than it did at $200.

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Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.