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It’s no rocket ship ride for Microsoft's (MSFT) stock.

AlphaSpace intel: While SpaceX made a sizzling debut in public markets, Microsoft's stock has remained stuck in the mud. Microsoft shares have traded below the key 200-day moving average for all of 2026, according to Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace. The stock is down 19% year to date, compared with a 10% gain for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

At one point after Monday's close, SpaceX shares climbed as high as $229.40, briefly suggesting a valuation above $3 trillion. Microsoft's market cap at the time was around $2.9 trillion.

The analysis: Hesitance to buy the dip in Microsoft's stock stems from several concerns.

Microsoft's $190 billion capital expenditures plan for 2026 is a roughly 61% jump from the prior year, with investors struggling to get comfortable with a number that massive, even as the company's revenue and earnings continue to beat estimates. The core concern here is twofold: Surging memory prices are putting a dent in the budget, and it’s unknown when this massive infrastructure investment actually converts into measurable free cash flow growth that justifies the price tag.

"We believe the forecasted acceleration in Azure and some encouraging trends around Copilot support the increasing capex spend though it could limit upside in the near-term," Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne wrote in a note.

Additionally, Microsoft faces ongoing concerns that its business worker applications, such as Office 365, may be disrupted by artificial intelligence competition like Anthropic's (ANTH.PVT) Claude Cowork. This is fueled by the perception that Copilot functionality lags the performance of other AI tools.

The bottom line: If a market on fire and a strong embrace of SpaceX's IPO (which theoretically could be good news for OpenAI's (OPAI.PVT) likely debut this fall and by extension, Microsoft's stake in the company) hasn't awakened Microsoft's stock from its 2026 slumber, you have to wonder what will.

If you have an idea for the next catalyst, I am all ears on X @BrianSozzi.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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