US stock futures rose on Monday morning as investors welcomed easing oil prices and growing optimism that tensions between Washington and Tehran could cool in the coming days.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) climbed 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) added 0.7%. Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) led gains, rising 1%. Regular trading was paused on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

Investor sentiment improved after President Trump said negotiations with Iran were “moving along well,” signaling that diplomatic efforts may still prevent further escalation in the conflict. Trump also cautioned that the US remained prepared to act militarily should talks collapse.

Stock futures pared gains but remained higher as the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with the US saying it conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. firing at a US aircraft and drones.

Oil markets reacted swiftly. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude futures briefly spiked and then tumbled nearly 5%, extending the recent pullback in energy prices. Brent (BZ=F) crude also fell over 4%. Lower crude prices also helped fuel last week’s rally. US oil fell 8.4% over the period, its steepest weekly decline since mid-April.

Still, elevated energy costs have complicated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in an 8.5% chance of a Fed rate hike in July, up sharply from just 0.9% one month ago.

Oil prices pared some of their deeper losses on Tuesday morning after the US and Iran clashed near the Strait of Hormuz but still kept up appearances of progress on a peace deal.

Bloomberg reports:

The strikes came hours after US President Donald Trump reiterated that negotiations with Tehran to extend their ceasefire and reopen the strait were proceeding, and just before Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei published a statement warning that the “nations and lands of the region will no longer be a shield for American bases.”

There’s “a lot of talking back and forth” about “specific language in the initial document, so it’ll take a few days,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in India on Tuesday morning.

The US military said it conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile-launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it fired at an F-35 fighter jet and several drones after they entered Iranian airspace.

The IRGC claimed it shot down an unmanned MQ-9 Reaper drone and forced the other aircraft to flee. Several Iranian personnel were killed in the attacks on vessels near Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s state-run Nour News reported, without providing further details. Israel’s military said it wasn’t part of the US operation.

Read more here.

Traders returned from the Memorial Day holiday with some optimism as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) ended last week above the 7,500 mark.

This week, markets have some semiconductor and retailer earnings to look forward to, as well as the Conference Board's consumer confidence reading on Tuesday and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, on Thursday.

Here’s today’s economic data and earnings calendar:

Tuesday: ADP weekly employment change, week ended May 9 (42,250 previously); Chicago Fed national activity index, April (-0.2 previously); Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, May (-16.5 previously); FHFA housing price index, month-on-month, March (0.0% previously); Conference Board consumer confidence, May (92.5 expected, 92.8 previously); Conference Board present situation (123.8 previously); Conference Board expectations, May (72.2 previously); Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, May (-2.3 previously)

Earnings calendar: AutoZone (AZO), Elbit Systems (ESLT), Zscaler (ZS), Pony AI (PONY)