The multi-billion-dollar prediction markets industry is rivaling the pace of AI growth. Market volumes are estimated to eclipse $1 trillion by 2030 (1), with 71% of prediction market current users being men under the age of 45, according to a recent study from analytics firm Morning Consult. In addition, about one in four American men between the ages of 18 and 24 say they have used at least one prediction market or gambling app in the past six months, according to a poll by the American Institute for Boys and Men (2) (AIBM).

A recent Bloomberg (3) analysis found more than 100,000 accounts lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, one of the largest prediction market platforms. The Wall Street Journal (4) reported that 67% of profits on Polymarket go to 0.1% of accounts. Close to half a billion dollars allegedly went to fewer than 2,000 accounts. Most accounts you’ll find on prediction markets are money losers.

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Cameron George, a 26-year-old content creator and crypto trader, told the BBC (5) he used an AI bot to make bets for him after hearing on social media that it can be an easy way to make money.

“I haven’t made any money so far. I’m down a couple of grand,” he said.

Moneywise reached out to George but did not receive a response.

Prediction market users trade outcomes tied to future events, including sports, politics, economic indicators and entertainment topics. The risky nature of the platforms tends to draw a predominantly male audience, reflecting the demographics of adjacent communities such as sports betting, cryptocurrency, meme investing, streamer culture and influencer fandom.

YouTube personality Logan Paul has a partnership with Polymarket and has posted (6) about prediction markets with captions such as “Never heard of this guy but he made me rich.” Elvira Bolat (7), a professor at Bournemouth University, said she is concerned that prediction markets normalize betting and that influencers are downplaying the risks involved.

“Prediction markets are increasingly being framed not simply as gambling, but as a form of intelligence, strategy, forecasting, or participation in internet culture itself,” she told the BBC.

Jonathan Cohen (8), head of sports betting policy at AIBM, described what young men are experiencing as “economic nihilism” — a mindset in which someone with $20,000 may feel they can get rich quickly through speculative markets rather than waiting decades for returns through vehicles such as the S&P 500, he told the BBC.

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Ben Fielding (9), CEO of AI infrastructure provider Gensyn, told Moneywise that prediction markets give men a place to express their views, with recognition in the form of financial value when they are correct.

“Prediction markets often encourage trading on specific major events in order to drive maximum liquidity for fees,” Fielding told Moneywise. “This one event can then be spread on social media, encouraging more men to make the same trades without necessarily being better-informed — i.e. much closer to gambling than information trading.”

“Information markets, on the other hand, encourage trading on anything by allowing anyone — including those same men — to create their own markets, encouraging them to trade only the things they genuinely care about or have real information about, rather than just buying into the same trades as the influencers they follow in the hopes of getting rich,” he added.

According to Fielding, over time “this open trade of information leads to something a bit like Wikipedia — a huge encyclopedia of live information that is updated by the people with the real information, and they make money by doing it.”

Right now, prediction markets are not classified as gambling in the US. If you live in any one of the 50 states, you can place bets. They are regulated as commodity futures trading, and platforms earn revenue by charging a small fee on each transaction. But some states are pushing back: Minnesota became the first state to ban prediction markets, according to The New York Times (10).

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CNBC (1); American Institute of Business Management (2), (8); Bloomberg (3); The Wall Street Journal (4); BBC (5); Instagram (6); Bournemouth University (7); LinkedIn (9); The New York Times (10)

This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: 'Too big to stop': Young American men are flocking to prediction markets to take big risks on even bigger rewards

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