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Management identifies 2026 as a pivotal inflection point where demographic demand for senior housing is expected to jump and remain elevated for over a decade.

The Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) serves as the primary growth engine, delivering its fifth consecutive year of double-digit same-store NOI growth.

Outperformance in U.S. occupancy, which grew 370 basis points year-over-year, is attributed to the 'Ventas OI' platform's data analytics and active asset management.

Strategic positioning has shifted the portfolio to over 60% senior housing, focusing on a private-to-public arbitrage opportunity in a highly fragmented sector.

The company is leveraging its scale and liquidity to capture 'more than its fair share' of deals in an increasingly competitive transaction market.

Operational leverage is expanding margins, with NOI margins reaching 30% and incremental margins at 50% as occupancy climbs toward historical highs.

Full-year 2026 FFO guidance was raised to a midpoint of $3.86, driven by improved SHOP same-store NOI growth expectations of 16%.

Investment volume guidance for 2026 increased to $3 billion, the highest in three years, targeting unlevered IRRs in the double-digit to mid-teens range.

Guidance assumes a 300 basis point increase in full-year occupancy, though management notes the May-September selling season will ultimately determine the outcome.

Supply-demand tailwinds are expected to remain durable as senior housing construction starts remain at historic lows while the 80+ population begins a 30% five-year growth surge.

Management increased its operating expense guidance from 5% to 5.5%, noting that the primary driver is volume-related costs rather than labor inflation.

Completed a $540 million acquisition of the Revel portfolio, a value-add lease-up opportunity of luxury independent living assets acquired below replacement cost.

The Revel seller retained a 25% interest, signaling a 'strength-on-strength' joint venture to capture upside through Ventas OI initiatives.

Net debt to EBITDA improved to 5.0x, with $5.5 billion in available liquidity providing a buffer against higher forward interest rates.

Transition of 45 former Brookdale communities into the SHOP portfolio is on track, with $50 million in projected NOI upside expected to materialize starting in 2027.

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Sellers include private equity funds with expiring vehicles and owners facing debt maturities who lack the scale to manage assets effectively.

Management argues that assets often perform better in Ventas's hands due to their data-driven platform and ability to outperform at scale.

While in-house rate increases are running at nearly 8%, management remains focused on volume (occupancy) as the primary growth lever in the U.S. portfolio.

Waitlists are beginning to emerge in the U.S., mirroring trends already established in Canada, while community fees are increasing across the portfolio due to high demand.

Current market rents would need to rise 20% to 40% to make new development projects financially viable for most competitors.

While there is interest in new supply, management does not view it as a near-term threat given the three-year development cycle and high construction costs.

Communities that are already 90%+ occupied with flat year-over-year occupancy are delivering 70% incremental margins.

The total portfolio incremental margin remains at 50% because many U.S. assets are still in the lease-up phase at 87% occupancy.

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