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On June 7, 2024, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) closed just above $1,200 per share. The next trading day, shares opened just above $120 per share after the company executed a 10-for-1 stock split.

Nearly two years later, Nvidia has added nearly $2 trillion in market cap, growing from roughly $3 trillion at the split to $4.9 trillion today, and shares trade around $202 -- up more than 67%.

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It's a long way to go, but could Nvidia shares hit $1,200 per share again? That's a sixfold gain from here. It would also mean the company's market cap would be somewhere north of $28 trillion -- an absolutely staggering number.

The simple answer to the question is "yes." The more complicated question that investors need to consider is "when?"

For illustrative purposes, let's say today's price is actually a flat $200. Here's the compound annual growth rate required to get there in a few different time frames.

Time Horizon

Required CAGR

5 years

Approximately 44% per year

10 years

Approximately 20% per year

15 years

Approximately 13% per year

20 years

Approximately 9.5% per year

25 years

Approximately 7.5% per year

Calculations by author. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.

Now, compounding at 44% annually is the kind of return almost no company can sustain -- almost. Nvidia just did it, and then some. Over the past five years, the stock has grown at an annualized rate of nearly 70%.

But that was a generational move that came at one of the most explosive moments in tech history -- a time when Nvidia grew its annual revenue by more than 1,000%. Take a look at the exponential growth in the chart below.

Now that Nvidia is the largest company in the world, growth will be inherently more difficult. In 2021, it was the 24th-largest globally, with a market cap of around $330 billion. Asking for another run like that in half the time, from a $4.9 trillion base, is essentially asking for a miracle.

But that same move over not five, but 25 years, equates to a 7.5% annual growth rate. If it takes that long, Nvidia would have underperformed the historical average for the S&P 500.

The same destination looks impossible on one timeline and lackluster on another.

Wall Street consensus has Nvidia hitting roughly $370 billion in revenue in fiscal 2027, up from $215.9 billion in fiscal 2026. Analysts predict that it will climb to about $480 billion by fiscal 2028.

If Nvidia delivers on those numbers and the market keeps assigning a similar valuation multiple, shares could plausibly double in the next few years. That would put NVDA near $400 -- a long way from $1,200, but a meaningful step along the path.

But at some point, the company's ability to sell more chips will slow. It can still grow, just at a slower rate. And when that happens, the stock's multiple will compress. That will extend the timeline considerably.

Will Nvidia reach $1,200 per share? There's a good chance. Will it happen in five years? Almost certainly not. In 10? It's possible, but very unlikely in my view.

I think 15 to 20 years is the most likely sweet spot. And this still requires Nvidia to execute at an extremely high level -- a level that few companies have ever managed. It also requires that the larger market remains strong and that a major correction doesn't derail the momentum.

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Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Nvidia Stock-Split: 2 Years and $1.5 Trillion Later, Can It Reach $1,200 Again? was originally published by The Motley Fool