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Analysts see meaningful upside across Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian, but the stocks have not moved in sync as company-specific factors drive performance.

Royal Caribbean and Carnival have benefited from stronger execution and profitability, while Norwegian has lagged due to weaker margins and execution challenges.

Future performance will be impacted by execution, fuel exposure, and fundamentals, with Norwegian’s turnaround progress a key factor for its upside.

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The cruise sector has been on a roll, and Wall Street thinks it has more room to run. However, the rising tide hasn't lifted all stocks equally, as differences in fundamentals, fuel hedging, and valuation have led to varying performance across companies.

Over the last few years, the overall industry has benefited from a combination of strong demand, solid pricing, and healthy onboard spending. Even with the recent spike in oil prices, three of the major cruise operators, Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE: NCLH), have still managed to post strong stock gains over the last 12 months.

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The strength appears poised to continue. All three stocks carry Moderate Buy ratings, and Wall Street anticipates solid upside for each over the next year. However, company-specific factors will largely shape how each performs going forward.

Carnival has been a standout performer over the last year, with shares up more than 60%. While strong demand has benefited the whole industry, Carnival's multiple consecutive quarters of earnings beats further reassured investors that the company has been firing on all fronts. Despite the recent rise in oil prices, which has put pressure on cruise companies' bottom lines, shares of Carnival have risen by more than 3% over the last three months.

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The company delivered record results in every quarter of 2025 and continued to deliver into the first quarter of 2026. On March 27, the company reported Q1 earnings of 20 cents per share, which were up from 13 cents a year earlier and 2 cents above estimates. Revenue of $6.17 billion increased more than 6% year-over-year and exceeded expectations by roughly $35 million. The company also increased its full-year outlook operationally by approximately $150 million.

Despite the solid quarter, high oil prices remained a concern for investors. Carnival, unlike some peers, doesn't hedge fuel, and the company said it anticipates a 38-cent-per-share hit from higher oil prices. Shares fell around 5% following the report.

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Analysts had mixed reactions to the quarter, though on average, they still see additional upside for the stock. The 12-month consensus price target of around $34 implies 17% upside from the current price of $28.90.

From a valuation standpoint, Carnival looks relatively inexpensive, trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 13X, compared to almost 18X for Royal Caribbean and around 23X for Norwegian. The leisure and recreational services industry as a whole trades at a P/E of nearly 18X. Carnival's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 1.3X is also well below Royal Caribbean's P/S ratio of more than 4X and the industry's, which is above 7X. However, it is above Norwegian's P/S ratio of less than 1X.

A record number of guests in 2025 and robust onboard spending made Royal Caribbean another big winner in the category over the last year, with shares rising nearly 45%. The company's Q4 earnings release on Jan. 29 reinforced its strength as the cruise operator continued to execute.

Earnings of $2.80 per share were up sharply from $1.63 per share the prior year and were in line with expectations. Revenue of $4.26 billion rose more than 13% over the previous year, though it was around $18 million shy of expectations. What really excited investors, however, was the company's outlook. Royal Caribbean said it expects 2025's momentum to carry into next year, with double-digit revenue and adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) growth. Shares jumped around 18% following the release, sending the stock above $350.

Although the rise in oil prices has recently weighed on the stock and others in the group, Like Carnival, Royal Caribbean's stock has held up well. Over the last three months, shares are up more than 3%. Some of the resilience is due to the company being roughly 60% hedged on fuel costs for the year. Beyond that, Royal Caribbean's net margins are also substantially higher than its peers, at nearly 24%, compared with roughly 11% for Carnival and around 4% for Norwegian.

Analysts have a positive outlook on the stock, on average, expecting it to reach around $349 over the next 12 months. If that pans out, it would mean about 25% upside from its current price of around $279.

Norwegian has been lagging behind its peers. While the industry's overall strength has pushed the stock up 23% over the last year, the rally has been modest compared with Carnival or Royal Caribbean. And unlike its peers, which have remained in positive territory recently despite higher oil prices, Norwegian shares are down more than 1% over the last three months.

The stock has been pressured by execution issues at the company, which recently prompted the hiring of a new chief executive, John Chidsey, to turn things around.

In the company's Q4 earnings press release on March 2, Chidsey said, "My initial assessment is that our strategy is sound, but execution and cross-functional alignment have fallen short. Our priority is to act urgently to address these gaps by improving coordination, reinforcing accountability, and strengthening financial discipline across the organization."

Chidsey's remarks came as the company reported mixed results for the quarter. Earnings of 28 cents per share were 2 cents above year-ago earnings and beat estimates by a penny. Revenue of around $2.24 billion was up about 6% over the prior year but missed expectations by roughly $100 million. Norwegian's track record has been mixed over the past two years, with inconsistent earnings and multiple revenue misses.

The company also issued cautious 2026 guidance, saying it is "entering 2026 against a pressured backdrop as it is slightly below the optimal booking range following certain execution missteps in aligning our commercial strategy with our deployment."

Shares dropped more than 20% in the five sessions following the report.

While oil remains an ongoing concern for the whole industry, Norwegian's roughly 51% hedge this year will help to soften the blow. Analysts expected meaningful upside for Norwegian in the year ahead. The average 12-month price target of $24.58 is nearly 22% above the current stock price of around $20.20.

By most accounts, strong industry demand is expected to continue, which should help support cruise stocks across the board. However, execution will ultimately determine performance. Given their key differences, the path ahead is unlikely to look the same for all three.

The article "Comparing 3 Cruise Stocks: Which Has the Most Upside in 2026?" was originally published by MarketBeat.