So far in President Trump's second term, prices in the US have risen only about half as quickly compared to his predecessor's four years in office. Yet Trump has a 72% disapproval rating on the issue and risks paying a steep political price — just as former President Joe Biden did — with voters drawing a direct connection between rising prices and the president's policies.

In the last election cycle, prices of all items rose more than 20% during Biden's term, sparking widespread voter angst. This time around, price growth is notably slower, rising 5.4% in a little less than two years since Inauguration Day.

But a Yahoo Finance analysis of price data shows that a few major outliers have hit Americans' wallets in an outsized way, largely due to increases in goods affected by the war in Iran and tariffs.

Fuel oil and gasoline are perhaps the most dramatic examples, spiking over 30% beginning in March in response to the war in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. 

And voters have noticed, as evidenced in poll after poll. A New York Times/Siena poll released this week found 73% of likely voters disapprove of the president's handling of gas prices.

Trump underscored the salience of energy prices when he posted a charge this week that "Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the US Midterm Election." 

Trump has often pushed back against questions about high energy prices, saying they won't be a problem once the Iran war ends.

Read more: How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceries

The connection between price increases and Trump's tariff policy has also been in evidence.

Coffee prices have risen nearly 23% during Trump's second term (more than double the rate under Biden) as tariffs raised prices before Trump scrapped many of the coffee duties late last year in response to coffee drinkers' unhappiness.

Goods like toys and footwear have likewise risen rapidly as importers from China and elsewhere in Asia faced new tariffs. Toys are a particularly stark example, falling by 4.6% during Biden's term and then rising by 7.8% so far in Trump's term.

"Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally," Trump said in a rare acknowledgment of tariff-fueled price increases when he was pressed on the issue in April.

Other goods have moved in the opposite direction. Eggs jumped by an average of 2.57% each month when Biden was in the White House, but have dropped 3.82% each month of Trump's term so far, the analysis shows.

But tariffs remain in focus and unpopular, with an average of polls from the Silver Bulletin finding that 62.7% of Americans disapprove of how Trump has handled trade and tariffs versus 32.8% who approve.

Despite the different roots, inflation has emerged as the central political problem for Trump and his party — as it was for Biden and Democrats — and comes as early voting is already underway for the Nov. 3 midterms.

And perhaps no individual price tag is more politically charged, for any president, than the cost of a gallon of gas. 

Trump is trying to make his case as gas prices are averaging about $4.30 per gallon and diesel is elevated after setting an all-time price record last month, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Trump has taken multiple actions just this week to try to rein in prices, including $8 billion in support for farmers and invoking the Defense Production Act on Thursday to direct new funds to increase refining capacity.

Trump touted the moves before voters in Iowa on Thursday, saying the release of $150 million would lead to more production of diesel and gasoline.

Yet he faces the inconvenient fact that his record on gas prices is now all but indistinguishable from Biden's.

Since Jan. 20, 2025, prices have averaged $3.449 per gallon according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Under Biden, the average price was $3.455 per gallon over his four years.

Trump spent much of the last campaign promising the opposite, pledging $ 2 per gallon gasoline and vanishing inflation in nearly every 2024 campaign speech.

That is leading voters to blame the president for the state of affairs.

This week's national poll from the New York Times and Siena University found that 75% of voters view economic conditions as only fair or poor, and a solid majority put the blame on Trump.

As Ipsos also put it this week in a summary of recent findings:  "Americans' confidence in the economy has been bad since the Iran war began [and] now the bottom has dropped out."

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.