Argentina’s Lionel Messi has won all of his country’s eight prizes, while Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo has won five.

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With less than a week until the winners of the Ballon d’Or awards are announced, speculation is growing over who will claim this year’s coveted prize in the star-studded men’s category.

While veteran stars like Harry Kane, record-breaking winner Lionel Messi and teen talent Lamine Yamal are favourites, the award has been notoriously unpredictable.

Organisers say the trophy is awarded based on three criteria, in order of importance:

Shortlisted candidates will be judged for their performances between August 3, 2025 and July 19, 2026 – the day of this year’s World Cup final.

The 30-player shortlist features three former winners: eight-time winner and Argentinian icon Messi, holder Ousmane Dembele of France, and 2024 winner and Spanish midfielder Rodri.

Al Jazeera Sport takes a look at which countries have won the most Ballon d’Or awards since the men’s prize was created in 1956:

All of Argentina’s Ballon d’Or trophies have been won by one of the all-time football greats, Messi, who announced his retirement from international football in August after leading his country to finish runners-up at the World Cup and winning the Major League Soccer title with Inter Miami.

The 39-year-old has clinched the award a record eight times: 2009-2012, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2023.

Last year’s winner, Dembele, took France’s tally to a record eight awards, won by six men spanning several generations.

Several teammates, who helped lead France to fourth place at the World Cup, join him on the shortlist: Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano.

Previous French winners include:

Portugal’s seven awards are courtesy of just three men; Eusebio (1965), Luis Figo (2000), and five-time winner Cristiano Ronaldo, who, along with Messi, has dominated the awards for the past two decades (2008, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017).

Unlike Messi, however, Ronaldo has been excluded from the shortlist for a fourth consecutive year. Other teammates who could give Portugal an eighth win are Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes, Joao Neves and Vitinha.

Germany last saw a Ballon d’Or winner in 1996 courtesy of Matthias Sammer, but enjoyed success in years prior. No German player has made the shortlist this year.

Previous winners are:

Similar to Germany, the Netherlands last saw Ballon d’Or success in the 1990s and does not have any players shortlisted for the men’s award.

The country’s seven prizes have come courtesy of three Dutchmen:

Football icon Ronaldo won Brazil’s first Ballon d’Or in 1997, after which the country saw four more victories.

Players on the 2026 shortlist who could give Brazil its first Ballon d’Or in two decades include Gabriel, Marquinhos, and Vinicius Jr.

As the award ceremony returns to England, so too do hopes for a Ballon d’Or trophy after Stanley Matthews won the inaugural accolade in 1956.

High hopes rest on English captain Kane, who has had one of his best seasons, scoring 73 goals for club and country and winning the Bundesliga title with Bayern Munich. Kane also led England to a third-place finish at the World Cup.

He is joined by Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham on the shortlist. Here are England’s previous winners:

Italy’s five Ballons d’Or have come from five different players and none in the past two decades:

Spain scooped up a handful of Ballon d’Or awards last year and looks poised to repeat its triumph this year following its World Cup victory.

Yamal, winner of last year’s Kopa Trophy, is joined by teammates Pau Cubarsi (Best Young Player award at the World Cup), Marc Cucurella, Rodri (Golden Ball award at the World Cup), Fabian Ruiz, and Ferran Torres.

Previous winners for Spain: