CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate hinge on a victory by James Talarico (D) in Texas.

In an analysis shared by CNN on YouTube Sunday, Enten zeroed in on the Lone Star state battle and the statistical importance of Talarico defeating scandal-plagued, Donald Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton.

“What if James Talarico actually does the impossible and turns Texas blue?” Enten teased despite the distinct possibility.

“Well, if James Talarico actually wins in Texas, get this, he gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the United States Senate,” he declared.

The stat wonk asked, “Why?” Then, he gave the answer.

“The most likely seat to determine control of the United States Senate? It’s Texas. Because Democrats need to flip four seats — they need to flip four seats! And guess which seat is No. 4 most likely to flip? It’s Texas.”

Leaning on an aggregation of forecasts. Enten put Talarico’s chances of victory at 70%.

Said the stats jockey: “And I will note as Talarico’s chances have been going up, and they have been going up. Democrats’ chances of winning control of the U.S. Senate? They’ve also been going up ― going up like a rocket.”

A recent Fox News poll had Talarico up by 2 points, and a New York Times survey gave him a 6-point lead among polls collected by the latter outlet.

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