CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Monday echoed the blunt assessment of a Trump adviser who reportedly told the network this week that the 2026 midterm elections are “obviously going to be effing rough” for Republicans and, subsequently, Donald Trump.

“Yeah, I will tell you, they’re right. It’s going to be ‘effing rough’ because the levee has been breached. The blue wave is coming over the wall, Speaker Johnson and President Trump,” Enten said on “CNN News Central.”

Enten pointed to Trump’s approval rating in key House battleground districts as a warning sign for Republicans.

In September 2018, shortly before Democrats won back control of the House, Trump’s net approval rating in key districts stood at minus 8 percentage points. This year, Enten pointed out, it is -16 points, twice as negative.

“Simply put, mathematically, this equals a Democratic majority for the House of Representatives,” Enten said.

The state of the economy is the main factor, according to Enten.

In 2018, 77% of voters in key House districts held a positive view of Trump’s first-term economy. Trump’s economic approval rating in those districts now stands at 37%. Enten acknowledged the figures measure slightly different things but said they still show the uphill task facing Republicans this fall.

Watch the analysis here:

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