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Air travelers could have fewer flight options — and potentially higher fares — heading into the busy holiday season as some of the country's largest airlines pull back on capacity.

American Airlines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines are all scaling back or reconsidering planned flight schedules as jet fuel prices surge. The airlines say travel demand remains strong, but the sharp increase in fuel costs is making some lower-profit flights less feasible to operate.

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For American, the latest jump in fuel prices alone is expected to add roughly $1 billion to its fourth-quarter fuel costs compared with the assumptions it made in July. The airline has already adjusted its financial outlook twice this year.

The changes don't necessarily mean travelers should expect widespread cancellations. Instead, airlines are looking at the economics of individual routes and frequencies — particularly flights that generate less revenue.

Fuel is one of an airline's largest operating expenses, which means sudden increases in cost can quickly squeeze profit margins.

American CFO Devon May said fourth-quarter fuel prices have risen by roughly $1 per gallon from the level the airline assumed in July. American estimates that every one-cent change in fuel prices affects its quarterly costs by about $10 million. That makes a $1 increase particularly significant.

Jet fuel prices have been climbing alongside crude oil prices amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that, at the time of writing, the global average jet fuel price rose 7.4% to $194.90/bbl compared to the week before.

Airlines can respond to higher fuel bills in several ways, including raising fares, cutting costs or reducing the number of flights they operate. In this case, executives have indicated that capacity reductions are becoming part of the equation.

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United has already said some flights that had been scheduled for December will no longer operate. The carrier has also warned that additional adjustments could come in the first quarter of 2027 and beyond if fuel prices remain elevated.

Southwest, meanwhile, has roughly halved its planned 2026 capacity growth from its original target of about 2% to 3%. Its CFO said additional reductions could follow if fuel remains expensive.

The strategy is relatively targeted. Rather than simply cutting flights across the board, airlines are evaluating routes that have become less profitable because of the higher cost of operating them.

The IATA's June outlook noted that airlines responding to elevated fuel costs could rationalize capacity by trimming less-profitable routes or reducing flight frequencies. That can help carriers reduce fuel exposure while supporting fares on the flights that remain.

The biggest immediate impact for passengers could be fewer choices, particularly on routes with multiple daily departures.

That could matter more as Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's approach, when demand for air travel typically increases. If an airline removes one of several daily flights on a route, travelers may have to choose a less convenient departure time, connect through another airport or pay more for a remaining nonstop flight.

And fewer seats can put upward pressure on fares.

That's because airlines aren't simply cutting capacity because people have stopped traveling. Executives from all three carriers said demand has remained resilient despite higher fares. United, for example, described fourth-quarter bookings as strong, while American reported strength across both premium and economy cabins.

That combination — strong demand and less available capacity — can give airlines more ability to maintain or increase fares.

This doesn't mean every ticket will suddenly become more expensive. Airfares vary widely depending on the route, timing, competition and how far in advance a ticket is purchased. But travelers looking for the cheapest seats could face fewer options if airlines continue removing marginal flights.

For anyone planning holiday travel, the developments are another reason to pay attention to schedules rather than assuming that a particular flight frequency will remain available. Airlines could continue making adjustments into late 2026 and, if fuel prices stay elevated, into 2027.

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This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Airlines are cutting capacity again amid $1B surge in Q4 fuel costs — here's what that means for travelers

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