ANCHORAGE, Alaska – Scott Wheaton thinks a lot about why people vote the way they do in elections. He doesn’t work in politics; he’s a retired geologist. But sitting outside Dark Horse Coffee one sunny day earlier this month, Wheaton described himself as a “super voter” who takes elections very seriously, which is why he’s become fascinated by what makes someone ultimately pick one candidate over another.

“We vote for these bullshit reasons,” said Wheaton, 77, reclining in an Adirondack chair with a dog-eared book on his lap. “But I really think one of the big bullshit reasons we vote is we look at people and we say, ‘Do I like this person? Would I want this person to help me out?’”

That’s how he’s weighing his vote in Alaska’s Senate race, one of the most competitive in the country. Voters have a choice between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, the two-term incumbent, and his main challenger, Mary Peltola, a former Democratic representative. With the Senate teetering on the edge of flipping to Democratic control in November, Peltola is one of the Democrats poised to help her party potentially pull it off. She’s been narrowly leading in the polls for months and outperformed Sullivan in last month’s primary election.

To Wheaton, an independent voter and lifelong Alaskan, the choice in this race is obvious. All you have to do is look at them with fish.

“Mary’s splaying the fish, she’s drying the fish, she’s working at a drying rack, she’s working on clearly what’s a working boat. It’s dirty and grungy,” Wheaton said of Peltola’s campaign ad. “She’s just grungy, guys. We can tell she is. We can tell she’s a real person that does real work.”

Sullivan, meanwhile, is the guy who poses for a photo holding up a big fish, he said, and whose campaign is promoting a photo of him next to a dead bear he shot.

“For Dan Sullivan, it’s pasted on,” said Wheaton. “It’s like, ‘Oh, he shot a Kodiak bear?’ Give me a freakin’ break. It’s like he’s out shooting brown bears whenever he’s not being a senator? It’s just a stupid concept.”

Alaska is a red state. President Donald Trump won here in 2024 by 14 percentage points. But it’s also known for its sharp and proud independent streak. For some perspective on how much sway voters have here who aren’t registered Democrats or Republicans: 611,940 Alaskans voted in the 2024 presidential election. A 58% majority of them were registered as nonpartisan or undeclared.

I spent a few days talking to random Alaska voters, in grocery store parking lots in Anchorage and at the Alaska State Fair in the more conservative town of Palmer, a 45-minute drive north. I interviewed nearly four dozen Republicans, Democrats, independents and even someone in The Useless Clown Party (it’s a recognized political group here!). I asked the same questions of everyone — do you plan to vote in the Senate race, and if so, for whom and why? — spanning families, older couples, young adults and people of different genders and races.

Across the board, people shared how tired they are of division and chaos in politics. When they think about the Senate race, they said, they’re looking for someone who seems authentic, someone they could comfortably talk to, and someone they believe will put the public’s interests above their own. Democrats and Republicans mostly applied that criteria along party lines.

“I will vote for Sullivan,” said Tom of Anchorage, 65, a Republican voter who requested to only use his first name. “He’s committed to the Alaskan state. He’s committed to us.”

“Mary all the way. Don’t get me started on the other asshole,” said Rhonda Platt of Cordova, a port city with a population of about 2,600. A Democrat, Platt ripped Sullivan’s support for policies that have fueled high costs in her community — chief among them Trump’s war in Iran and economic tariffs on Canada.

“You’re talking to somebody who lives in a landlocked fishing village. A gallon of milk in Cordova is $15 a gallon. Gas is six bucks a gallon,” fumed Platt, 66. “For me, everything goes right back to Sullivan. I trust the dude as far as I can pick him up and throw him.”

“They’re in it for themselves,” she added. “I believe that Mary’s for Alaskans.”

Where things got more interesting is when independent voters weighed in. By and large, they said they want a relatable candidate who will look out for regular people instead of the rich and powerful — and concluded that Peltola is the better choice.

“I think she best represents Alaskan interests, and I think that Dan Sullivan is a snake,” said Liz Dennison, an independent voter in Anchorage.

Dennison, 66, knocked Sullivan as “a Trump mouthpiece” who isn’t even from Alaska (he’s originally from Ohio — the term “carpetbagger” came up in a few interviews), while Peltola seems “much more approachable” in her ads and at her live events.

Another independent voter in Anchorage, 75-year-old Linda, who requested to use only her first name, said all she knows is she’s not voting for Sullivan. She’s mostly been annoyed at the inundation of mailers, calls and texts from groups that have already spent tens of millions of dollars to sway Alaskan voters one way or another. Several residents described getting at least five calls a day from various groups on top of repeat text messages and brochures.

“All this crap mail, saying the same thing over and over and over again,” she grumbled. “Quit wasting your money on that and do something useful. Put that money towards the homeless.”

There’s still about a month and a half to go until the election, and understandably, some people are still learning about candidates. Natalia Keogh, an independent voter in Anchorage, is undecided but leaning toward Sullivan. “I like his politics better than Peltola,” said Keogh, 55. What does that mean? “I guess action,” she said.

She thinks it’s a bad idea that Trump is planning to come to Alaska to campaign with Sullivan, given his abysmal approval ratings. She voted for Trump in 2024, and is “absolutely not” happy with the last two years because “he didn’t follow through on any promises.”

Asked why she thinks she’ll support Sullivan despite her anger at Trump, given that the senator has been a strong supporter of the president and his policies, Keogh paused.

“That’s a good question,” she said. “Maybe I’ll change my mind.”

Fish are a defining issue in this Senate race, too.

Commercial trawling, when industrial ships drag football-field-sized nets through the water or along the ocean floor to catch large quantities of certain fish, has driven billions of dollars into the state’s economy. But it’s come with high rates of “bycatch,” or other fish accidentally scooped up in the nets and later discarded, dead. This bycatch comes out to about 141 million pounds of marine life in Alaska being tossed every year, and includes fish like salmon and halibut, both vital to Indigenous communities that catch fish primarily for survival.

Combined with the negative effects of climate change, trawling has depleted Alaska’s salmon populations so badly that local and Native Alaskan villages are in crisis. A lot of the revenue from industrial trawlers flows to Seattle, too, further infuriating Alaskans who have long fished recreationally but say they’re not catching anything now.

Sullivan and Peltola have made this issue central to their campaigns. Sullivan touts his role in getting 63 bills signed into law over the last 12 years that he says have helped Alaskan fisheries, and has knocked Peltola for not getting any bills signed into law during her two-year House stint. He introduced a bill in June aimed at reining in bycatch, though it’s worth noting he’s also an ally to commercial trawlers and takes lots of campaign money from them.

Peltola, who is Native Alaskan and a former fishing boat captain, even has fish in her campaign slogan: “Fish, Family and Freedom.” She talks about the issue in a more personal way.

“As someone who grew up salmon fishing on the Kuskokwim River with my father, I know firsthand that fish is more than food – it’s central to our Alaska way of life,” she said in a June statement, laying out her plan to help the state’s fisheries. “That way of life is under attack and the fish that fill our freezers are becoming harder and harder to find thanks to out-of-state factory trawlers, excessive bycatch, and destruction of our fisheries.”

Peltola’s campaign declined multiple requests for an interview, citing a packed schedule. Sullivan’s campaign did not respond to requests to connect.

Instead, Peltola provided a statement when asked about voters’ concerns over access to fish.

“The salmon runs that fed generations of Alaskans are shadows of what they were, and the communities that depend on them are suffering,” the Alaska Democrat told HuffPost. “We need bold action to take on the rigged system in DC and save our fisheries, and that’s why I’m fighting to ban factory trawling and protect Alaska fishermen.”

Peltola also took a shot at Sullivan: “As Lower 48 factory trawlers destroy our fisheries, my opponent is taking their campaign cash and refusing to fight for real solutions in DC. I’ll fight to save our fish, deliver relief for our fishermen, and make sure Alaskans are the ones benefiting from our fish – not the Seattle trawl fleet and Lower 48 corporations.”

Alaska Natives comprise more than 13% of the state’s population, and many live in remote areas you can’t reach by car. Kelsey, 33, lives in Chickaloon, a Native village with a population of about 250. An outdoor educator, she said out-of-state trawlers have hurt local commercial and sport fishing in her community, but mostly subsistence fishing.

Kelsey, who was guzzling a smoothie at the Alaska State Fair as we talked, said this issue is key to her choice in the Senate race. She’s leaning toward supporting Peltola.

“I think that Dan Sullivan … has had more meetings with business for money that’s leaving the state,” said Kelsey, who didn’t give her last name and didn’t identify with any party. “It’s been pitched to me that Mary is more going to support, like, actual residents, whether we just have our residential fishing license or, like, a subsistence license.”

On the other side of the fair, Nick Hanson was flinging people 30 feet into the air.

A local celebrity, Hanson, known as “The Eskimo Ninja,” has competed 11 times on American Ninja Warrior, the show featuring athletes taking on difficult obstacle courses. An Alaska Native who lives in the village of Unalakleet, he was showing people how to do a “blanket toss,” a tradition in which a person is launched into the air by dozens of other people pulling on the edges of a large blanket made of sewn seal skins. Historically, Indigenous hunters have done this to get a high vantage point to spot whales or seals out at sea.

Hanson, 38, said he definitely plans to vote in November but doesn’t disclose who he votes for. But he was clear about his most important issue: “Trawling’s the biggest one,” he said. “Our subsistence lifestyle is the main thing that is most important to me, and we don’t have fish because of the trawling. ... We don’t have any king salmon.”

Asked why this hasn’t gotten better if people know it’s a big problem, Hanson said, “Because nobody does anything about it after they say they’re going to do something about it.”

The most dispiriting trend was hearing young people say they didn’t plan to vote and their reasons why not.

“Convenience to go voting,” said Layla, 23, bobbling a baby in her arms. “I work. I have a daughter. Also, I don’t like either party. I just feel like we’re given, like, two shits in a hand and told to choose between them.”

“It’s just not our kind of fight,” said Siu Dawson, 25, as he loaded up his car with groceries outside of a Walmart. “It’s hard doing a lot with so little time.”

Melanie Han, an Asian American woman heading into the same Walmart in Anchorage, said she’s not sure if she’ll vote and feels like it doesn’t matter anyway.

“No matter who runs for Alaska, it’s going down the drain,” said Han, 34. “I don’t really tune into it because I feel like it’s empty promises. I don’t think it’s gonna make a difference.”

Others a bit older than them said they’re likely to vote.

Lowell Button, 40, had just won third place in a beard contest at the state fair when he shared that he’d be supporting Sullivan. He’ll only vote if he’s home on Election Day, though, and his support is entirely tied to his belief that Republicans will protect his job in the oil and gas industry.

“Anytime a Democrat gets power, I get laid off,” said Button, a resident of Palmer, his new award dangling in his beard. Sullivan is “very pro-development.”

Lingering by the nearby Hoop ’n Hula Milk ’n Cookies, a cookie vendor with a space for hula hooping next to it, Alex Wilson, 41, said she’s “not impressed” with Sullivan. Wilson, a resident of Palmer, is registered with The Useless Clown Party, a progressive political group grounded in the idea that “the traditional political circus” has failed to serve the people.

She said she works a lot on the Yukon, and people there haven’t been allowed to fish for king salmon since 2018. That’s leading her to want to support Peltola in November.

“I imagine his stance on big corporate fisheries’ management is really detrimental to our Native populations,” Wilson said of Sullivan. “The villages are dying. My heart lies with the Indigenous populations. And so, Mary Peltola being an Indigenous woman is huge, in my mind.”

You can’t talk about this Senate race without talking about Dan Sullivan — the other Dan Sullivan on the ballot.

Alaska uses a ranked-choice system of voting, meaning voters rank their top candidates in order of who they want — regardless of party — and then the top four advance to the ballot in November. Peltola and Sen. Sullivan are the top two Senate candidates to advance after the August primary. The third candidate is the other Sullivan, a retired teacher on the island community of Petersburg. We’ll call him Teacher Sullivan.

Residents aren’t sure whether Teacher Sullivan is a plant or a genuinely frustrated Alaskan voter taking advantage of his name to make trouble for the current senator. An independent-turned-Republican, Teacher Sullivan is running to the left of Sen. Sullivan and has criticized his senator for being unresponsive to constituents.

Republican voters didn’t have much to say about the weird Dan Sullivan situation. Independents and Democrats said they loved it.

“I think it’s hilarious,” said Ryan Moldenhauer, 28, of Anchorage. “He’s Alaskan. He’s from Petersburg. Like, he has every right to run.”

“Sen. Sullivan’s pissed because his campaign materials say ‘Sullivan,’” Linda, the independent voter in Anchorage, cackled. “That’s why he’s pissed, is his campaign materials.”

Teacher Sullivan “respectfully” declined to be interviewed. “Hope you get some nice late summer weather in Anchorage,” he said in an email. “Can’t wait to hear what Eric Hafner has to say! :))”

Hafner, a registered Democrat currently serving time in federal prison in New York, advanced last month in the primary for Alaska’s House seat.

He did not respond to a request for comment.

You also can’t really talk about this Senate race without talking about Alaska’s other senator, Lisa Murkowski. She’s the senior GOP senator, known for her centrist positions and for standing up to Trump when virtually nobody else in her party does. She’s not up for reelection until 2028, but her name came up plenty of times in interviews with voters.

Several saw parallels between Murkowski and Peltola, both being centrist and strong women. Both previously crossed party lines to endorse each other in their Senate and House races, respectively, but in this Senate cycle, Murkowski is backing her party’s ticket.

“I feel like she’s a Democratic version of Lisa Murkowski,” said Chris, an independent voter and Palmer resident who was having a great time throwing back beers at the state fair with her self-described “lover.” Both said they might vote and, as is the case with Murkowski, they like that Peltola is “willing to cross party lines to get things done.”

Elizabeth Belanger, a 50-year-old Democrat in Anchorage, said she sees Peltola strategically appealing to the same mixed base of Democratic, independent and moderate Republican voters who routinely elect Murkowski.

“Peltola is running as a Democrat, but … I heard she turned down campaign contributions from Kamala Harris. Because she was like, ‘No, we’re not associating ourselves with the mainline Democrats,’” said Belanger, likely referring to Peltola this year rejecting unsolicited support from the former Democratic vice presidential nominee.

“That’s probably what’s helping her, you know?” she said.

“I love Lisa Murkowski,” offered Diana, 65, a conservative Republican in Anchorage. “She stands her ground. She votes what she thinks is right.”

A former engineer for BP, Diana said she and her husband vote the same in every election so they don’t cancel each other’s votes out. In November, they’ll “probably” support Sullivan, she said, because they don’t want Democrats to win control of the Senate.

But in what felt like a sudden flash of Alaskans’ libertarian streak, after about 10 minutes of talking, Diana seemed to want to support Peltola — and said not to tell her husband.

“Who can’t love Mary Peltola?” she added. Asked what the hell just happened in our conversation, Diana replied, “I said I didn’t think I was going to vote for her.”

“My son is going to vote for her,” Diana added. “He likes her.”