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If Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) ever grows into the business it is trying to build, today's price will probably look like a footnote. The stock is trading near $6.40, its 52‑week low, and well below the one-year high of just under $20. That means $500 today buys roughly 78 shares. If the market simply decided Joby deserved to trade back at $20 in three years, those same shares would be worth about $1,560.

That is the math. Let's get into what the company does.

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For years, Joby's aircraft ideas lived on test ranges where the only neighbors were birds and engineers. Joby is building electric air taxis that can turn hours-long ground trips into 10-minute flights. Joby used to be one of the "if only" companies that investors would look at and dream of its potential. I think all that is starting to change.

In March, the White House enrolled Joby in a new federal pilot program that allows "mature" electric air-taxi designs to fly in real U.S. airspace before full certification. Joby was picked from several winning applications, with the chance to start early operations in 10 states, including Texas, Florida, New York, and California.

Under the program, Joby gets to run its aircraft along real routes with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) watching, including at major airports like Dallas-Fort Worth International. Every trip generates data on noise, safety, and how the aircraft fits into crowded skies. That data is exactly what regulators need to write the rulebook for commercial service. To me, that is a big deal. It moves Joby out of the "science project" phase and into the "prove it in the real world" phase.

Electric air taxis do not get to skip the same safety process regular airliners follow. Joby has been working through the FAA's certification system for years. The company now has its first fully conforming aircraft -- built the same way future customer aircraft will be built -- flying under FAA oversight.

Joby says it has completed three of five stages and is in the last one, which the FAA calls "Show and Verify." This is the part where federal test pilots fly the actual aircraft and double-check that it behaves the way Joby promised throughout every phase of flight. If you are thinking about where the business could be in three years, this is the clock to watch. A type certificate is the wall between "sci-fi prototype" and "legal to sell rides."

Joby is not trying to build its own airline from scratch. In 2022, Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) agreed to a multi-year partnership in which Joby would operate the aircraft, and Delta would integrate the service into its app and customer channels, starting in New York and Los Angeles. Delta has already invested $60 million in Joby, with the option to increase it to $200 million if milestones are met.

That partnership makes me more comfortable viewing Joby as an investment because Delta's backing gives the company credibility with a major airline and a potential path to scale. While the deal is several years old, having a major brand already invested creates a stronger foundation for future partnerships, additional capital, or even potential acquisition interest.

At today's price near $6.40 per share, $500 will buy around 78 shares of Joby. If the company wins its type certificate, gets real routes running with partners like Delta, and convinces investors it can scale those routes without constant hiccups, it is reasonable to think the market could reward that progress with a higher valuation.

If the stock simply revisits the top of its recent range around $20, those 78 shares would be worth over $1,500 on paper. Keep an eye on some stock dips into the new year to improve your average, and that $1,500 could be closer to $2,000. That's not a bad investment.

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Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

$500 Invested in Joby Aviation Today Could Be Worth This Much in 3 Years was originally published by The Motley Fool