A high-profile election analyst said Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) may give Democrats a real shot at finally winning a statewide race in Texas given the electoral weakness of his opponent, state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

"Since 1994, I've gotten call after call virtually every day from Texans in politics on the Democratic side, saying, 'This is the year. We're finally gonna do it,'" University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato said Thursday in an interview with CNN's Erin Burnett that referenced a Fox News poll showing Talarico with a 51 percent lead over Paxton's 48 percent.

"But you know what? I'm starting to believe it's actually possible this year," he added.

Sabato argued that while Talarico was a "great candidate," the real opportunity for a win hinged on Paxton's political liabilities. "Paxton is so awful," he said.

The political analyst pointed to a string of Paxton's legal troubles and scandals, including being impeached by the Texas House, facing 20 charges of misconduct in office, indictments on three felony securities fraud charges and an extramarital affair.

Sabato said those controversies could alienate donors and voters alike.

"A lot of these donors won't touch him," he said. "He's not doing well at all raising money. It's because they have family and friends and businesses to protect, and they really don't want to identify themselves publicly with a candidate who has Paxton's record."

Paxton has raised $9.2 million, according to campaign finance records, which paled in comparison to Talarico's $68 million — including a record $30 million raised in the second quarter of this year.

The race became one of the nation's most closely watched Senate contests after Paxton defeated longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) in the GOP primary runoff with the backing of President Trump.

Paxton was indicted on state securities fraud charges in 2015 and was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 in a 121-33 vote before being acquitted by the state Senate.

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