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Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: $MSTR) is getting a vote of confidence from TD Cowen, but with a much lower price target attached to a weaker Bitcoin (CRYPTO: $BTC) outlook.

The firm cut its Strategy target to $260 from $400 while keeping a Buy rating on the stock. The reduction was tied mainly to TD Cowen's lower Bitcoin forecast, not Strategy's new Digital Credit Capital Framework.

TD Cowen now expects Bitcoin to end 2026 near $100,000, down from its prior estimate of about $140,000. Its 2027 forecast also moved lower, to roughly $135,000 from $190,000. The shift drove most of the target reduction, while the analysts left their assumptions for Strategy's future Bitcoin purchases unchanged and kept the earnings multiple at 3x.

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The lower target still implies a large rebound from Monday's $92.68 closing price, a gap TD Cowen acknowledged could look "out of context." That leaves the call balanced between a more cautious Bitcoin path and continued belief that Strategy can manage its capital structure through the downturn.

Strategy is also giving investors more detail on how it plans to manage liquidity through the downturn. Its new framework includes a board-approved U.S. dollar reserve policy, a revised STRC (NASDAQ: $STRC) dividend approach, preferred-share and common-stock repurchase authorizations, and a formal Bitcoin monetization program.

Strategy said its U.S. dollar reserve stood at about $2.55 billion as of June 28, enough to cover about 17.4 months of expected preferred dividends and interest expense. The company also raised the STRC dividend rate to 12% and authorized up to $1 billion each for digital credit securities repurchases and MSTR common stock buybacks.

TD Cowen called the framework constructive because it gives investors clearer rules around liquidity, dividends, repurchases and potential Bitcoin sales. The harder question is whether that flexibility can rebuild confidence without weakening the Bitcoin accumulation story that made Strategy the market's flagship treasury stock.

Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) is trading at $85.91 U.S. per share. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is currently trading at $58,260 U.S. per digital token.