Argus

โ€ข

Jun 18, 2026

Sector(s)

Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical

Summary

New Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh and his cohorts at the FOMC left the fed funds target at 3.5% to 3.75%. But it's clear that there's a different sheriff in town and that there will be little, if any, forward guidance on monetary policy and only a bland characterization of how the economy is doing. While acknowledging the Fed's dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability, Mr. Warsh did acknowledge, 'we've got some work to do on the price stability front.' The 2-year Treasury yield shot up to 4.19% from 4.06% midday and was up 14 basis points (bps) on the day. That was the highest yield close for the 2-year since February 2025 and leaves the historically trusty leading indicator of the fed funds rate looking for at least a few 25 bps hikes. The CME FedWatch Tool is now looking for one or two small hikes by the end of 2026. The stock market sniffed out uncertainty concerning monetary policy with at least a hawkish tint -- and didn't like it one bit. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, more than filled its recent price gap, and is back below its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) on a minor basis. The index has given back half of its recent three-day rally. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell 1%,

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