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Equinor has unveiled a new long-term strategy focused on expanding oil and gas production, increasing shareholder distributions, and delivering stronger cash flow through the end of the decade, reflecting its view that global demand for hydrocarbons will remain resilient amid growing concerns over energy security and affordability.

The Norwegian energy major said it intends to double its 2026 share buyback program to $3 billion, up from the previously planned $1.5 billion, while introducing a more predictable framework for annual buybacks of $2 billion to $4 billion beginning in 2027. The company also reaffirmed its goal of increasing its quarterly cash dividend per share by more than 5% annually.

Chief Executive Officer Anders Opedal said Equinor is positioned to benefit from continued growth in global energy demand and plans to leverage its portfolio across oil, gas, power generation, trading, and marketing.

Under the strategy, Equinor expects total production to rise by approximately 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to 2.3 million boepd by 2030. The company raised its outlook for production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) to 1.35 million boepd in 2030, an increase of 100,000 boepd from previous expectations, while maintaining a forecast of 1.3 million boepd in 2035.

International oil and gas output is expected to grow 30% to roughly 950,000 boepd by 2030, supported by assets in the United States, Brazil, Angola, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Equinor said this segment is projected to generate around $20 billion in free cash flow after capital expenditures and lease payments between 2026 and 2030.

The company expects cash flow from operations after tax to increase by 30% from 2025 levels by 2030. Free cash flow after capital expenditures and lease payments is forecast to exceed $40 billion during the 2026-2030 period.

To support growth, Equinor plans to increase investments in high-return oil and gas projects, adding approximately $1 billion of capital spending in 2027. Annual capital expenditures are expected to total around $12 billion in 2027, excluding the impact of tax credits related to the Empire Wind project, and between $11 billion and $13 billion annually from 2028 through 2030.

Around 60% of future capital spending will be directed toward the Norwegian Continental Shelf, which remains the company's core value driver. Equinor said it plans to develop six to eight new subsea tie-back projects annually through 2035, targeting developments with break-even prices below $35 per barrel and payback periods of less than 2.5 years.

While hydrocarbons remain the primary growth engine, Equinor also plans to expand its power business. Electricity generation is expected to increase fourfold to more than 20 terawatt-hours annually by 2030, primarily from projects already under construction. The company expects these assets to generate equity returns above 10%.

Equinor is also targeting greater profitability from its trading and market optimization activities. Adjusted operating income from trading is expected to rise 25% to roughly $500 million per quarter by 2030 as the company expands its asset-backed trading activities and deploys additional digital and artificial intelligence tools.

The strategy reflects a broader shift among major European energy companies toward renewed emphasis on oil and gas investment after years of aggressive renewable expansion. Rising power demand from electrification and artificial intelligence infrastructure, combined with ongoing concerns over energy security following the European energy crisis, has reinforced the value of long-life hydrocarbon assets and flexible gas supplies.

Despite increasing production, Equinor maintained its target of reducing operated greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 through the electrification of offshore facilities and energy-efficiency improvements. The company also expects to reduce net carbon intensity across its value chain by 15% to 30% by 2035.

Equinor said it expects to maintain a return on average capital employed above 15% annually between 2026 and 2030.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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