US stocks were mixed on Wednesday as tech stocks eyed a rebound ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dipped below the flat line. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.3% after the blue-chip benchmark closed at a record high amid uncertainty around the US-Iran peace deal.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday. As a result, investors will focus on discerning Warsh's view of monetary policy and whether rate hikes could be on the horizon. Hot inflation data amid the US war with Iran, combined with signs of a steady job market, has taken rate cuts off the table.

Investors are also debating whether the blocked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could be cleared quickly, as they weigh the US-Iran interim deal to end their conflict. After agreeing on a draft 14-point memorandum, the two sides aim to formally sign an agreement on Friday.

But President Trump said the memo wasn't final and the US could "go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head" if he didn't like it, speaking at the G7 summit on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, SpaceX (SPCX) turned 4% lower, poised to snap a post-IPO rally that has seen the Elon Musk-led rocket company eclipse Amazon (AMZN) in market value in just three days of trading.

SpaceX (SPCX) stock fell on Wednesday for the first time since the company went public, breaking a three-session winning streak that pushed Elon Musk’s company into the top 10 most valuable companies.

Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian reports:

The stock shed as much as 5% in the opening hour, trimming a debut rally that had at one point reached roughly 58% above the IPO price. The slide arrived just a day after SpaceX edged past Amazon to become the fifth-most-valuable stock, having briefly climbed above Microsoft during Tuesday's trading.

The reversal is an early gauge of whether the retail frenzy behind the launch can hold up a valuation that rose almost without interruption. Individual investors had bought more SpaceX stock than any other name on every trading day since the offering, per Vanda Research, a pace of demand that has had few precedents among recent market debuts.

Read more here.

Allbirds (BIRD) stock is up more than 30% on Wednesday as it makes its next move in the dramatic pivot from a sustainable sneaker business to an artificial intelligence company.

The company announced a name change to Smartbird and tapped former Amazon Web Services executive Nadia Carlsten as CEO, who also joined the company's board of directors.

Carlsten previously served as the Head of Product for AWS Center for Quantum Computing and as CEO of another infrastructure company, DCAI, and Google spin-off SandboxAQ.

The company is seeking to fill what it views as a gap in the AI market by providing high-performance AI chips and data center space.

Carlsten said the company is "entering the market at a pivotal moment in the evolution of AI infrastructure."

She added that there is a "clear opportunity to meet the growing need for enterprise-grade AI infrastructure that delivers control and performance without the capital and operational burden of hardware ownership."

The International Energy Agency is predicting an oil glut coming to market in 2027, as the war in Iran looks to wind down and global demand falls.

"Our first look at 2027 balances shows a significant overhang emerging next year," the IEA wrote in its most recent monthly market report on Wednesday.

"This may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves, as countries review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis."

At the top line, the IEA is modeling growth in oil demand of 2 million barrels per day (mbd), bringing total demand up to 105.3 mbd, while supply is "set to surge" by roughly 8 mbd to a total 110 mbd.

On the supply side, the IEA argues that if the deal between the US and Iran can hold firm, oil production throughout the Gulf region will begin to recover, while other regions such as the Americas continue to boost their own production.

For the IEA, however, the focus is on demand. The agency predicts that global demand will fall by 1.1 mbd year-on-year in 2026, a downgrade of 700,000 bpd from the IEA's May report. The agency cites a 5 mbd drop in deliveries "in the face of higher fuel prices and disruptions to product availability."

Added up, the IEA's 2027 forecast implies that supply will outweigh demand by 5.05 mbd next year as demand is outpaced.

US retail sales rose by more than expected in May as Americans continue to pay more for gasoline than they did four months ago.

Retail sales rose 0.9% from April, a bigger jump than the 0.5% economists expected, the Commerce Department reported. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 6.9% from May of last year.

Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, and the rise likely reflects higher costs of goods, such as fuel.

Sales at gas stations climbed 3.4% month over month and surged 26.5% year over year. Retail sales at grocery stores and other retailers held steady, suggesting that the war in Iran hasn’t completely shifted the consumer landscape, despite an uptick in inflation.

Stocks were little changed at the open as investors awaited the first Fed decision and press conference under the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) opened 0.5% higher, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) barely budged.

Tech, financials, and industrials led the sectors at the open.

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) was also steady at 4.43% as traders widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady.

The market is entering a capex boom so large it's taking hold as a supercycle, Goldman Sachs told investors this week.

"For the first time in many decades, the demand for capital is rising," Goldman strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a client note.

Front and center of the capex supercycle is the hundreds of billions of dollars being poured into the AI infrastructure build-out. The so-called hyperscalers are now projecting more than $600 billion in 2026 capex, driven primarily by AI spending.

At the same time, Goldman argues, world governments are spending more on defense and supply chain resilience as the post-war globalization movement has begun to reverse, from the Trump administration's tariff policies to Beijing's stranglehold over critical minerals production. The war in Iran and renewed focus on energy security have only further spurred public investment.

"Supply chains are being reconfigured for resilience, raising capital intensity and structurally increasing cost bases, as the cycle shifts from capital-light growth to capital-intensive expansion," per Goldman's strategists.

All of this comes as the world steps increasingly toward a "post-modern" era that began in 2022, Goldman argues. The new era, the strategists write, is built on reflation, higher interest rates, heightened debt and cost of capital, growth opportunity, and a host of other factors that say the fiscal conditions of the 2000s are gone.

Stock futures held steady after President Trump underscored on Wednesday that the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran was not final.

"It's ⁠a memorandum of understanding,” Trump said at the G7 summit in France, per Reuters. “And ​if I don't like it, ​we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head."

The MOU is scheduled to be signed on June 19, instituting a 60-day negotiation period to end the war.

Oil prices edged higher, but still remain below their mid-war peaks. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) were trading at around $79 per barrel, while WTI crude futures (CL=F) traded at $75 per barrel.

SpaceX (SPCX) shares rose before the bell, set for a fourth day of gains after the Elon Musk-led rocket company overtook Amazon (AMZN) by market value.

Bloomberg reports:

Shares of Elon Musk's rocket and AI company Space Exploration Technologies Corp. rose 4.5% in New York premarket trading Wednesday, signaling a slower pace of gains than previous sessions.

The company formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has rallied about 49% since going public through Tuesday's close, overtaking Amazon in value to become the fifth-largest stock in the world, and is now roughly $150 billion away from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT).

… SpaceX stock's run is "really not at all unexpected, especially with the fact that they had 30% of the issue available for retail investors," said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management.

Read more here.

The Federal Reserve’s Kevin Warsh era begins Wednesday, as President Trump’s pick to lead the central bank oversees his first policy decision and holds his first news conference.

Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger looks at what’s in play:

Kevin Warsh will preside over his first interest rate-setting meeting as Federal Reserve chairman on Wednesday, when the central bank is expected to hold rates steady.

All eyes will be on Warsh as Fed watchers try to discern his views, his personal credibility, and how he will position the Fed in the current landscape. The committee is facing hotter inflation readings as the conflict in Iran has pushed inflation higher.

"While Warsh is generally perceived as dovish, he will inherit a committee that has become noticeably more hawkish," said Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

"Warsh's first challenge will not be steering the committee toward easier policy, but demonstrating that his decisions are grounded in economic fundamentals rather than political considerations."

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Oil headed for the longest losing run in 10 months on gathering expectations that a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will unleash a wave of supply, loosening the global crude market.

Global benchmark Brent (BZ=F) retreated for a fifth day to below $79 a barrel, trading near a three-month low, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $76. The interim pact, which is due to be signed on Friday, offers Tehran broad financial incentives, including the right to sell its oil immediately.

Crude prices have retreated sharply in recent weeks as moves to end the war between Washington and Tehran are seen easing tightness in global energy markets. Producers, shippers and traders are now assessing whether the agreement will prove to be durable, and how long it will take for vessel transits of the Hormuz chokepoint to be revived in earnest.

While technical details are still being finalized and some language may be changed, a 14-point draft memorandum offers the clearest picture yet of the deal, which will pave the way for 60 days of talks aimed at formally ending the war and imposing strict new limits on Iran's nuclear program.

Read more here.

In a memo seen by Bloomberg, the US and Iran have agreed upon 14 points that make up a draft peace deal, to be signed by both countries in Switzerland on June 19.

Ceasefire: Immediate and permanent end to war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Non-interference: The US and Iran agree on sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Timeline: Reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days.

Blockade: United States to lift the naval blockade.

Troops: The United States to withdraw its forces within 30 days.

Hormuz: Iran will immediately open the Strait of Hormuz

Reconstruction: The US agrees to pay Iran $300 billion in aid for rehabilitation

Nuclear weapons: Iran agrees to never produce nuclear weapons.

Status quo: US and Iran agree to maintain the agreement as it stands at the time of signing.

Sanctions: The US will end all economic sanctions on Iran.

Frozen funds: Iranian restricted or frozen funds to be released and made fully available.

Implementation: A dedicated 'mechanism' to be put in place to ensure future commitment to the deal.

Order of business: No agreement will be signed until 'Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11' are implemented. These being the removal of the blockade, the withdrawal of US troops, the removal of sanctions and the release of funds.

United Nations: The deal is to be overseen by the binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

Read more here.