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America is in a real estate rut, which only just started showing signs of recovery in May (1) — but one type of housing has managed to retain heated demand and buck downward sales trends: luxury homes (2).

People who are happy to spend millions on a property tend not to worry about rising prices (3) and lending rates like the average buyer has to. But what does factor into their zeal is whether they had a particularly good year at work and received a hefty annual bonus as a result, (4) which is something luxury real estate agents have learned to plan their best listings and effort around.

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And, another similar consideration has newly emerged as a key influence on how they work.

Spring and fall are peak times for high-price property sales, but so are, apparently, the dates surrounding major IPOs, like SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock market debut on Friday. As one brokerage founder told the New York Post (5) in May, “We used to plan our seasonality around Wall Street — we’d list [big properties] right around bonus season. These tech IPOs are how we plan now.”

Along with flashy cars, boats, watches and more (6), the 1% seems to love (5) blowing cash on upgrading their living situations, perhaps with a new vacation property or downtown penthouse.

Even more than two decades ago, Google’s initial public offering brought a monumental windfall (7)to the Silicon Valley real estate market; the same (8) happened when Facebook (9) went public a few years after that, and again in 2019 (10) when Uber, Pinterest and other tech titans had their respective IPOs.

In all of these cases, home prices rose alongside a short-term surge in demand from employees and other early investors who cashed in and made a killing once they were able to sell their long-held stocks on the open market.

Big names relocating or expanding likewise have track records of increasing market freneticism. When Amazon moved its headquarters to New York, agents began touting proximity to the campus (11) in their sales pitches.

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The SpaceX IPO is expected to deliver similar heat to major luxury markets domestically and even globally, including around its one million-plus-square-foot aerospace facility in Hawthorne, California.

Hawthorne and surrounding South Bay, Los Angeles County, represent part of a blended market that spans some entry-level suburban areas, along with numerous high-end beach communities, like Manhattan Beach and Palos Verdes. It’s the latter that Vista Sotheby’s International Realty partner Gerard Bisignano (12) says his team is anticipating an influx of interest in following the IPO.

“The IPO will produce thousands of millionaires overnight,” Bisignano, who’s been a fixture of Southern California’s luxury homes sector for decades, tells Moneywise.

He also referenced the Facebook IPO, which raised surrounding property values by 21% at the time. “I don’t know that we’ll hit higher than that, but this being the largest IPO in history, we should certainly equal that, and probably on a larger swath of more units,” he says.

“I truly anticipate a ripple effect that will be quite noticeable and will change the complexion of the real estate market here for a decade.”

At Bisignano’s brokerage, which comprises hundreds of agents operating across multiple offices, the action had already begun long before SpaceX’s June 12 IPO — including for a house in his own neighborhood. The property in question ended up selling for double the previous local ceiling price ($10 million, up from a previous ceiling of around $5 million), which he adds is “outrageous” for the area. The buyer, after multiple offers? Allegedly someone affiliated with SpaceX.

He’s also already been in touch with — and touched by — SpaceX employees who are scouting the area for homes for their parents. He sees larger properties with multiple garages becoming particularly in demand.

Given the staggered structure of the lockup period, though, shares in the company will be released gradually, and the money made from them, acquired slowly. The first in line are employees and early backers, who account for 4.7 billion out of the company’s 12.5 billion existing shares (to which the IPO will add another 555.6 million.)

Some of these will become available as soon as 70 days post-IPO.

To prepare, Bisignano says realty professionals may start advising luxury clients that the coming months could be a prime time to list, if they’ve been thinking about selling. Though he’s not sure that there’s any definitive way to direct new tech money into any particular area, the combination of his local market’s desirable weather, aspirational affluence, reputable schools, coveted all-around lifestyle and, of course, proximity to a key SpaceX campus make him confident that business will be booming.

“It’s almost guaranteed that our coastal communities here in South Bay will truly be affected positively,” he says.

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National Association of REALTORS (1); Institute for Luxury Home Marketing (2); CNBC (3), (6); Bloomberg (4); New York Magazine (5); Bay Area Market Reports (7); The Mercury News (8); Los Angeles Times (9); Forbes (10); StreetEasy (11); Sotheby's International Realty (12)

This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Forget Wall Street bonus season — tech IPOs like SpaceX are the new barometer for when the ultra-rich buy homes

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.