Argus

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Jun 11, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

When global economic conditions are uncertain, investors often flock to gold. When certainty returns, they may head in a different direction. This year is a case in point, as gold prices established a high for the century in January at $5,500 per ounce. But with seeming progress in winding down the Iran war, the price of gold drifted down to the $4,450 range, for a gain of about 2% for the year. Back in 2019, gold was at about $1,200 per ounce. That changed rapidly during the first phase of the pandemic, as the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months. Gold next spiked in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine. And over the past year, gold jumped another 33%, driven by global uncertainty over tariffs, among other developments. The current price reflects the perceived safety of hard assets amid global give-and-takes, as well as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates, which tend to weaken the dollar (the currency in which gold is priced). The outlook for Fed rate cuts also helps gold, as lower rates reduce the risk of a global recession and thus a decline in gold purchased for jewelry. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2026 is $4,000-$6,000 and our average price forecast is $4,500. This compares to an average gold price of $3,455 in 2025. Technically, the price of gold had been in a long-term bullish trend of higher highs and higher lows. But momentum may have stretched prices. On average, the price of gold has traded at a 6% premium to its 12-month moving average this century. The standard deviation is 9%. Earlier this year, the premium almost reached 40%, more than

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