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Ten years ago, Facebook was still Facebook. The company hadn't yet bought into the metaverse, the Cambridge Analytica scandal hadn't hit, and Mark Zuckerberg wasn't talking about superintelligence. Since then, Meta (NASDAQ:META) has rebranded, weathered a near-death stock collapse, and pivoted into one of the biggest AI infrastructure bets in corporate history.

The 2021 rename to Meta came with a metaverse vision that Wall Street hated. In 2022, the stock fell roughly 75% as ad revenue stalled, Apple's privacy changes bit hard, and Reality Labs hemorrhaged cash. Then came the "Year of Efficiency," mass layoffs, and a stunning recovery. Today, the company runs 3.56B daily active people across its apps and is plowing $125-145B into AI infrastructure in 2026 alone.

1-Year Return

Initial Investment: $1,000

Current Value: ~$937

Total Return: -6.29%

S&P 500 (same period): ~$1,265 (26.53%)

5-Year Return

Initial Investment: $1,000

Current Value: ~$1,900

Total Return: 90.05%

S&P 500 (same period): ~$1,785 (78.48%)

10-Year Return

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Initial Investment: $1,000

Current Value: ~$5,299

Total Return: 429.94%

S&P 500 (same period): ~$3,587 (258.68%)

Meta crushed the index over a decade, but holding through it wasn't easy. Anyone who bought at the 2021 peak near $380 watched their position cut in three before the AI rally bailed them out. The five-year number barely edges the S&P, and over the past year, Meta has actually lagged badly while the broader market ripped higher. Earnings tell the story underneath: quarterly EPS scaled from $0.97 in Q2 2016 to $10.44 in Q1 2026, even with a sizable one-time tax benefit baked in.

I'd put $1,000 into Meta today if I believed the AI infrastructure spend will actually pay back. At 19x forward earnings and a 41% operating margin, this isn't an expensive stock for a business growing revenue 33% year over year. The bull case is simple: AI-juiced ad targeting keeps the cash machine humming while Llama and Ray-Ban Meta glasses give the company a real consumer AI franchise.

I'd avoid it if I thought the $125-145B capex bill is the next metaverse, a multi-year free cash flow drain with nothing to show. Reality Labs lost $19.2B in 2025, U.S. youth-litigation trials hit in 2026, and EU regulators keep circling.

The bull case looks more compelling to me here. The 2022 lesson was that Zuckerberg cuts costs when he has to, and the ad business throws off too much cash to ignore. The recent 6% pullback looks more like a digestion of capex fears than a fundamental break.

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