The average 401(k) balance rose 44% between Vanguard's 2015 and 2025 "How America Saves" reports, but, adjusted for inflation, the real gain was only about 7%.

Median balances, a better measure of typical savings, lost purchasing power over the same period.

Even as the stock market nearly tripled over the past decade, the typical 401(k) balance has barely budged once inflation is taken into account.

Vanguard's annual "How America Saves" reports show the gap. In the 2015 report, the average balance among participants in Vanguard-administered plans was $102,700; by the 2025 report, the most recent data available, it was about $148,200—a 44% gain on paper. (Each report presents Vanguard's data as of the end of the previous year.)

Adjusting for inflation, the numbers are less encouraging. The 2015 report's average of $102,700 was worth about $138,000 at year-end 2024, so the real gain over the decade was only around 7%.

For the typical saver, a decade of contributions and market gains failed to keep pace with the cost of living. That raises concerns about whether savings rates are enough to fund American retirements.

Median balances, which are generally more representative of the typical participant because they aren’t skewed by the extremes at the top, are more sobering.

At year-end 2014, half of all participants had $29,600 or less saved, and half had more. By year-end 2024, that figure had risen to $38,200. In both 2014 and 2024, the average 401(k) balances were more than three times the median. When an average is that much higher than the median, it implies that a group of high-balance participants is pulling the number up.The median figures again look very different when accounting for inflation. In December 2024 dollars, $29,600 was equivalent to about $39,800, meaning the median balance dropped about 4% in value over the decade.

The trend isn't unique to Vanguard. An Investopedia analysis of data from Fidelity, the country's largest 401(k) recordkeeper, found a comparable trend over the same decade, with a similarly modest gain once inflation is stripped out.

Several factors could be holding down the typical balances.

One is the spread of auto-enrollment, which reached 61% of Vanguard plans in the 2025 report, up from 36% in 2015. New auto-enrollees often start with little or nothing saved, pulling the typical balance down even as longtime contributors' accounts climb.

Another factor could be that more people are tapping into their retirement savings early. According to Vanguard, the rate of hardship withdrawals has more than doubled since 2020, rising from about 2% to 5% of participants in the 2025 report.

On the positive side, the average employee contribution rate hit an all-time high of 7.7% at year-end 2024, up from 6.8% at the end of 2014. Including employer contributions, the average total savings rate reached 12% in 2024.

What the Vanguard and other provider data can't capture, though, are the workers who aren't actively enrolled in these plans, who tend to earn lower salaries.

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