Argus

โ€ข

Jun 01, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

According to our analysis of market returns since 1980, June is not one of the better months for stocks. On average, equity investors in June eke out a 0.4% return for the month, which is better than only the weakest months of February, August, and September. The winning percentage is 63%, higher than only the 3Q summer months. We note that market returns in June have exceeded 5% only four times in the past 37 years: a 5.4% increase in 1999, a 6.9% gain in 2019, and a 6.3% pop in 2023.  Last year was pretty good, up 5.0%.  Clunkers include 2008 (-8.6%), 2002 (-7.2%), 2010 (-6.1%), and 1991 (-4.8%). June typically is a quiet month for earnings as the second quarter draws to a close, though a few odd-quarter bellwethers such as Oracle and FedEx will release results that are often predictive of the EPS season that will start in July. But don't be surprised if there are fireworks on the economic, interest rate, and inflation fronts. On Friday, the non-farm payrolls report be released and will be watched closely by those looking to gauge the strength of the employment and the consumer segments of the economy. Our forecast is for a solid 125,000 new jobs, up from 115,000 new jobs last month and supportive of economic growth. The Federal Reserve meets for the first time under Chairman Kevin Warsh. T

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