National Republicans have already spent $90 million trying to defeat Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the state’s Senate race. Now, they fear the GOP will have to spend at least that much trying to help him win.

Paxton, a politician with a uniquely unsavory combination of far-right viewpoints, serious corruption allegations and a tawdry personal life, defeated longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on Tuesday night, opening up a Texas-sized hole in the GOP’s bulwark of Senate control.

Paxton’s victory means Democratic State Rep. James Talarico’s campaign in the state goes from a curiosity to a centerpiece. Republicans are already cooking up ways to attack him, focusing on his socially liberal viewpoints. Democrats are preparing to help their uniquely famous candidate – he has 2.2 million Instagram followers compared to just 36,700 for Paxton – raise oodles of money to put one of the most expensive states in the union to campaign in on the map.

Texas is far from the only development breaking Democrats’ way. Earlier this month, Nebraska’s primaries saw a victory for a Democrat who agreed to drop out and clear the way for independent candidate Dan Osborn, who pledged not to caucus with either party, yet would take a seat away from the GOP. Next week’s primaries in Iowa are expected to see a victory for state Rep. Josh Turek, who party leaders in Washington see as the most electable option.

Democrats started the year boasting they had created a path to the Senate majority by recruiting all-star candidates in Maine, Michigan, Alaska and Ohio. But with Republicans holding a 53-47 majority, winning the Senate was seen as a reach for Democrats at the start of the election cycle.

Now, potential victories in Iowa, Texas and Nebraska – three red states where Donald Trump won handily in 2024 but are up for grabs now because of the president’s rock-bottom approval ratings – give the Democratic Party backup options should something go wrong, such as a scandal sinking Maine progressive Graham Platner or a messy primary derailing the party’s chances in Michigan.

In Texas Hold ’Em terms, Democrats no longer require a straight flush to win the pot – three of a kind should do.

“At best, we have major money issues defending red states we should not have to be defending,” one veteran GOP Senate strategist, who requested anonymity to speak frankly about his party’s conundrums, told HuffPost. “At worst, we’ve given Democrats chances to win those states.”

Republicans are barely hiding their discontent. In a statement released shortly after polls closed, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which funded numerous ads attacking Paxton, simply attacked Talarico without mentioning their nominee.

“A state President Trump won by nearly 14 points isn’t going to elect James Talarico — a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary and that Texas should be a welcome mat for illegals,” said Samantha Cantrell, spokeswoman for the committee. “He is the most dangerous flank of the far left. Texas isn’t swapping brisket for open borders.”

The GOP is clearly hoping attacks on Talarico can unite a divided party. The Club for Growth, a well-heeled Republican super PAC, is planning to begin attacking Talarico as soon as possible. Early indications are the initial ads could be more focused on consolidating conservatives than winning over swing voters, with a heavy focus on the seminary student’s views on religion and gay and transgender rights.

Talarico, for his part, tried to brush aside the idea that he was somehow culturally alienated from average Texans.

“I’ve been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton’s first indictment,” he said on the liberal podcast MeidasTouch. “If all they have on me is lying about me being a vegan, I feel pretty good about our chances this November.”

Talarico, however, clearly plans to continue picking at the party’s wounds. He pointedly reached out to Cornyn’s supporters on Tuesday night and noted that Republican legislators were the ones who led the effort to impeach Paxton in 2023.

“The most corrupt politician in America just became the Republican nominee for the United States Senate,” Talarico said in a video reacting to Paxton’s victory.

Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in America. He embodies the broken system we’re running against.It’s time to come together: The People vs. Ken Paxton pic.twitter.com/xL3cckibX9

Cornyn, in an interview with CNN before polls closed, predicted a Paxton victory would end up costing the party “several hundred million dollars.” Other GOP strategists privately said the number was an exaggeration, but all agreed the race was likely to be one of the most expensive Senate contests ever.

“That’s money that could be and should be better spent in places like Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire,” said Cornyn, a former chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “If the Texas Senate seat is in jeopardy, that really jeopardizes our majority.”

Driving the issue is Talarico’s fundraising. He’s used viral moments to build up a large online fan base and has already raised $40 million, a number both parties expect to skyrocket in the coming months. Paxton has raised just $7 million.

Some Republicans anticipate a fight to erupt over who in GOP circles will be responsible for countering what will likely be a sizable campaign cash advantage for Talarico. Senate Leadership Fund, a Super PAC controlled by allies of Majority Leader John Thune, typically takes the lead in all Senate races. The group has about $166 million on hand and has already reserved $342 million worth of airtime for the fall. (None of its planned fall spend targeted Texas.)

But the group spent millions attacking Paxton during the primary, making their support now awkward, to say the least. Many GOP strategists hope MAGA, Inc. – a super PAC controlled by Trump’s political team with a $400 million war chest – ponies up some cash.

“Donald Trump wanted Ken Paxton to make it to the general election, and he made it happen with an endorsement,” said the veteran GOP Senate strategist. “If he wants Ken Paxton to win the general election, he has to make it happen with money and television ads.”

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