Argus

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May 26, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

The current bull market, which begins today with the S&P 500 at 7,473, started in October 12, 2022 and is now more than 3.5 years old. In that time, the S&P 500 has risen more than 110%, having endured high inflation, a credit rating downgrade of the U.S. Treasury, a hard-fought political election, the onset of tariffs and trade wars, a government shutdown, and now a war. Stocks have been supported by an economy that continues to grow, inflation and interest rates that had been heading lower, and robust profitability from S&P 500 companies. How much farther can this bull market go? We studied the 13 other bull markets that have occurred since the end of World War II. On average, the S&P 500 gained 164% during these periods, which averaged 57 months in duration, or just about five years. So the current rally is approaching average thresholds. But we also note that the recent bull markets have generated higher returns over longer periods of time, as economic growth has been more consistent and inflation generally has been tame.  On average, the five bull markets since 1980 have seen stocks advance about 240% over a period of almost six years. And the bull market prior to the pandemic carried on for 11 years, during which stocks rose 500%.  So while we are not in the early innings of the ball game, there is no reason to think that this is the bottom of the ninth. It is worth pointing out, though,

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