Argus

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May 22, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

In his final press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell provided a characteristically concise assessment of consumer spending and the economy. "The U.S. economy has just powered through shock after shock. And consumers are still spending." He added: "That's what the banks will tell you, credit card companies will tell you."  Argus expects 2Q GDP to grow 2.2%, with consumer spending up 1.9%. To be sure, companies are providing varying assessments depending on the products they sell and the income of their customers. Tractor Supply CEO Hal Lawton recently said: "While [tax] refunds did come through and we captured our fair share, customers are using these dollars more cautiously. A significant portion is going towards essentials, savings, and debt reduction rather than discretionary spending, consistent with the broader environment we're seeing." Tractor Supply's customers typically live outside of big cities, and often are home, land, pet, and livestock owners. They typically have an above-average income and a below-average cost of living. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said that HD's customers are "probably amongst the healthiest of all consumers." They tend to own their home; have seen their home equity increase by 50%; and their stock portfolios have grown. Still, even these customers are spending cautiously, while other consumers are struggling. Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane offered the following to the Wall Street Journal

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