Argus

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May 22, 2026

Intermediate Term

Long Term

Summary

The 10-year Treasury rose to 4.69% on Tuesday, the highest level since January 2025, and then dropped slightly to 4.59% at the close. There was a minor break above the trendline off the highs since October 2023, but it was not convincing. Lateral levels are much more important, and the next region is the early 2025 high at 4.8% and then the 2023 peak at 5%. Intermediate-term momentum using the price percentage oscillator (PPO) has traced out higher lows and crossed into positive territory, but the transition has been very slow and not definitive. On the downside, a break of 4.3% would likely end the yield uptrend that started at the beginning of March.  With the 2-year Treasury yield over the federal funds target by 35-60 basis points (bps), the Treasury market is leaning toward a 25-bps hike, or two. Still, the CME FedWatch Tool does not see a high probability of a 25-bps increase in the fed funds rate until the last meeting of the year on December 9. The next FOMC meeting takes place over June 16 and 17, with the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, delivering his first press conference. Does he stir the pot and give the financial markets something to w

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