Argus

โ€ข

May 13, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

Global economic growth is expected to dip in 2026 due to the Middle East conflict, but then pick up slightly in 2027, according to the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund. By the numbers, the world economy is expected to expand at a 3.1% rate in 2026, down from the 3.4% rate in 2025 and from the prior, pre-war forecast for 3.3% growth. For 2027, global growth is forecast at 3.2%. How does this compare to historical rates? Current rates are lower than the long-term historical global growth rate of 3.8%, due to the impact in recent years of tariffs and trade wars, onshoring, inflation, and higher interest rates. But that's not to say that there aren't growth opportunities for investors around the world. For advanced economies, growth is forecast at 1.8% in 2026. This forecast has been steady in recent months, as tariffs have not had the expected bite. Among the advanced regions, the U.S. economy is expected to grow the fastest this year, at a 2.3% rate, while Europe's forecast is for 1.1% growth and Japan is estimated at 0.7%. For emerging economies, forecasts call for 3.9% growth in 2026. The clear leaders are expected to be India and China, with average growth for the next two years of 6.5% and 4.2%, respectively. These nations have different drivers: population growth in India, which

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