A recent confidential intelligence analysis concluded Iran can endure the Trump administration’s naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz for several more months before facing severe economic consequences, four people familiar with the assessment told The Washington Post on Thursday.

The CIA analysis was reportedly delivered to policymakers this week, as the administration tries to convince the public the war has been an overwhelming victory for the U.S. and that the blockade on Iranian ports has significantly hurt the country.

“Their missiles are mostly decimated. They have probably 18, 19%, but not a lot by comparison to what they had,” President Donald Trump said Wednesday. “And their leaders are all dead. So I think we won. Now we have to get what we have to get. If we don’t do that, we’ll have to go a big step further.”

The CIA analysis, however, allegedly concluded Tehran retains about 75% of its prewar inventory of mobile launchers and about 70% of prewar missile stockpiles – even assembling new missiles that were almost done when the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, according to the Post.

“Fake News Media will always continue to push anonymously sourced, biased narratives to suggest the world’s strongest military failed,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told HuffPost on Thursday. The CIA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

An intelligence official did not confirm the CIA conclusion to the paper — only stressing that the U.S. blockade is “inflicting real, compounding damage” on Iran.

In response to the war, Iran essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping channel for global trade. The closure has led to a major oil and food crisis, worsening the U.S. economy and intensifying public calls to end the war.

One week after agreeing to the April 7 ceasefire, the Trump administration imposed a military blockade on all ships leaving Iranian ports, arguing that it was effectively squeezing Tehran’s economy. The White House has claimed that Iran is losing half a billion dollars a day.

But according to the CIA analysis, Iran can allegedly survive for 120 days before it experiences severe hardship — potentially more, if the regime can successfully smuggle oil through land convoys.

The Post report comes on the same day a shipping data firm said Iran created a new government agency to approve transit and collect tolls from vessels in the strait — a move maritime law experts say could violate international law.

The new Persian Gulf Strait Authority is “positioning itself as the only valid authority to grant permission to ships transiting the strait,” Lloyd’s List Intelligence said in an online briefing, sparking concerns about freedom of navigation in the major shipping channel used for most global trade.

Trump suspended an attempt to militarily open a safe passage for commercial ships to exit the strait, saying the pause would allow more time to reach a peace agreement. On Thursday, a Saudi official told The Associated Press that the kingdom was not consulted on the very brief effort and that the U.S. could not use the country’s bases to forcibly open the strait.

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