(Bloomberg) -- Gold fell as escalating Middle East tensions threaten a ceasefire between the US and Iran, keeping energy prices elevated and fueling inflation risks.

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Bullion dropped as much as 2.4% to extend Monday’s decline after the United Arab Emirates said its air defense system were responding to a missile threat from Iran while Tehran warned it was tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. A fresh plan announced by US President Donald Trump to help vessels through the key waterway has left shipping executives perplexed, as attacks continued and traffic remains at a near standstill.

The missile report by the UAE signaled that attacks are still ongoing — threatening the fragile truce while keeping oil prices elevated. Surging energy prices and a lack of availability of key inputs such as fertilizer will likely raise inflationary risks, increasing the chance of a Fed rate hike, according to Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.

“We may start to see these forces hit food and continue to keep fuel prices elevated, suggesting that there is a risk that these shocks will feed through into core inflation,” Melek said in an interview. “If this oil problem continues, the Fed’s next move may well be a hike.”

Melek said such a situation would support the US dollar, keep rates high and drive down gold prices.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on this week’s announcement of the US Treasury Department’s borrowing plans for the next three months, an array of Federal Reserve speakers and a loaded calendar of economic releases, crowned by monthly employment data. The information should give clues on the trajectory of rates and the US fiscal deficit.

Spot gold dropped 2% to $ 4,516.85 an ounce as of 4:28 p.m. in New York. Silver fell 3.5%, while platinum and palladium also declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, rose 0.2%.

--With assistance from William Clowes, Yihui Xie and Preeti Soni.

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