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eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY, XETRA:EBA) delivered impressive first-quarter results, posting 3% upside to gross merchandise volume and guiding for a second consecutive quarter of double-digit GMV growth.

First-quarter GMV growth of 14% on an organic foreign-exchange neutral basis was driven largely by a 24% surge in Focus Categories, up from 16% in the fourth quarter, with momentum across motor parts, fashion, and electronics. International and domestic GMV both accelerated during the period.

For the second quarter, eBay guided to GMV growth of up to 10%, though analysts at Jefferies noted this reflects a deceleration as one-time tailwinds like performance marketing efficiencies and the Klarna integration begin to fade and bullion sales normalize from elevated levels.

Analysts are urging caution as the e-commerce platform faces a potentially sharp slowdown in the second half of the year.

In a note, Jefferies maintained its Underperform rating on eBay while raising its price target to $65 from $60, citing first-half strength but flagging what it characterized as limited long-term growth visibility.

The more pressing concern lies in the second half. Although eBay raised its full-year 2026 GMV outlook to 7% to 7.5% growth on a constant-currency basis, up from a prior expectation of around 5.6%, Jefferies calculates that hitting the high end of second-quarter guidance still implies a slowdown to just 3% GMV growth in the back half of the year. The firm attributed this to tougher year-over-year comparisons and the moderation of category-specific tailwinds, including elevated trading card and bullion sales.

Jefferies also flagged disappointment with eBay's margin trajectory. The company guided for adjusted operating income growth of 9% to 11% for full-year 2026, implying only 15 to 30 basis points of margin expansion.

The firm estimated that first-party advertising revenue alone, which grew 28% year-over-year, could have contributed roughly $100 million in incremental EBIT in the first quarter, suggesting core reinvestment is offsetting much of the benefit from top-line acceleration.

eBay has indicated it intends to redirect some of that top-line upside into product development and marketing in support of strategic priorities including C2C commerce, eBay Live, and vehicles.

Jefferies lowered its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates by 4% and 2%, respectively, and now projects full-year 2026 EBITDA of approximately $3.04 billion, down from a prior estimate of $3.17 billion.