RTX Corporation (RTX) Stock Forecasts

Argus

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Apr 17, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

-

Short

Summary

Trends in the dollar, the world's dominant currency, offer clues about the confidence investors have in the U.S. economy and financial system. The greenback generally has been in high demand since the start of the pandemic. At the beginning of 2025, it was 21% above its long-run average. Why? When global uncertainty increases, investors seek a safe haven for their assets. But the hot-dollar trend had started to unwind a bit: in 2025, the greenback declined 5% on a global, trade-weighted basis. There were several reasons, including economic uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariff policies, swelling U.S. federal debt, a recovery in the European economy, and simple value investing. In recent weeks, all of the dollar angst has moved to the back burner and the greenback again is ascendant. The move is in response to the war in Iran, which triggered another flight-to-quality move into dollar-denominated assets. Indeed, since hostilities commenced, the greenback is up 5% and near cycle highs. This latest rally reaffirms our view that the dollar is far from at risk of losing its status as the global currency of choice. At current levels, the dollar is about 19% -- more than one standard deviation -- above its 20-year average value. It more than held up when the U.S. government temporarily shut down. The greenback is supported by the depth of a $27 trillion market, not to mention by the Fed's and the country's time-tested political/economic system of democratic capitalism

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