Argus

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Apr 10, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

The 1Q26 earnings season gets under way next week, launched, as usual by reports from the big banks. After the likes of JPMorgan Chase report, the floodgates will open with Consumer, Healthcare and Industrial companies all releasing results. Information Technology (IT) and Energy companies generally report later in the period, and then Retailers wrap things up by mid-May. According to the consensus (blended estimates from sources such as S&P, Bloomberg, LSEG I/B/E/S and S&P), S&P 500 earnings from continuing operations for 4Q25 are expected to grow 12%-13% year over year. Given that earnings typically exceed expectations by several percentage points, the "unofficial" forecast is for mid-teens EPS growth from 1Q25 levels. That would be the fourth quarter in a row of double-digit EPS growth, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. The all-important Information Technology sector is expected to set the pace for earnings growth, advancing 46%. Other leading sectors include Materials, Financials, and Real Estate. On the downside, earnings from Healthcare are expected to decline 9%, while Communication Service earnings tick lower by 2% due to a difficult comparison. Revenue is expected to rise 9% year over year, led by IT's 27% forecast increase. The balance of earnings growth will come from margin improvement and share buybacks. For 2026, our full-year S&P 500 earnings estimate is $315, implying mid-teens growth from 20

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