Morning Brief: Where things stand with Iran

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👋 Good morning! As the song says, what a difference a day makes.

A two-week pause on hostilities sent oil back into the mid-90s and stocks up and to the right as the Strait of Hormuz creaked open and ships tried to figure out whether it was safe to pass. The details of safe passage are part of a very fragile peace that remains a risk for markets.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 2.5%, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) 2.8%, and the Dow (^DJI) 2.9%.

On the agenda this morning:

✌️ Where things stand with Iran

✈️ Delta knows people will simply grit their teeth and pay more

💰 New crypto use case unlocked: Iran's tollbooth

👖 The CBK effect is very real, says Levi's.

₿ The NYT thinks it found Mr. Bitcoin

📆 What we're watching Thursday: We have an inflation reading on tap today, February's Personal Consumption Expenditures. While it's the Fed's preferred barometer, it's pre-oil shock. Still, we'll be paying close attention to that and the day's other economic data for any movement.

🏡 HELOCs have changed. Some homeowners may not like the new rules.

🤖 Meta launches Muse Spark AI model as part of its AI turnaround. It's the first company from Meta's "Superintelligence Lab."

🏷️ Inflation expectations could improve quickly if Strait of Hormuz reopens. A new study from the Dallas Fed put added pressure on a successful ceasefire.

🍪 BofA hikes 2026 chips forecast to $1.3 trillion, names Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, AMD as top drivers. The AI gold rush is still very much a thing.

💰 Will Social Security really go broke in 2035? Here is exactly what's happening.

🏦 Here are the takeaways from the March Fed minutes. Officials saw Iran war increasing inflation, delaying rate cuts.

💳 Gen Z is opening more credit cards and seeing their credit scores drop. They're churning.

🍏 Apple stock is the new retail investor darling. Tuesday was the stock's best day of net buying since June 2025.

📈 US-Iran ceasefire sends investors back to their most beloved stocks. "Mag 7," anyone?

🍔 McDonald's is getting eaten alive by revamped Burger King Whopper. The fast food wars are getting interesting.

See what else is trending on Yahoo Finance.

The first day of a ceasefire between the US and Iran started off with plenty of uncertainty. At the center of the conflict has been Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But where President Trump said the temporary peace would involve the waterway reopening completely, the reality is far more restricted. So far, anyway.

Iran's semiofficial ‌Fars news agency claimed tanker traffic was "halted" because Israel continues to launch strikes in Lebanon, and Iran has told mediators that only a limited number of ships will be allowed to transit the strait each day.

The US, Israel, and Iran hold conflicting positions on whether nonaggression in Lebanon is a part of the ceasefire agreement. But attacks are continuing on both sides.

For its part, Iran has unleashed missile and drone attacks, according to reports from Persian Gulf countries.

The White House contends that any cessation of ship traffic would be "completely unacceptable." Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance will travel to Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.

Read more.

Delta's play for premium seating has proven so successful that it's leading the industry in profits, taking a key trait of the country's K-shaped economy and fashioning it into a business model.

But as the company's earnings report revealed on Wednesday, executives are feeling optimistic about every class. Did somebody say main cabin growth?

For the first time in more than a year, Delta recorded positive unit revenue growth in the main economy cabin. Sure, premium tickets, corporate trips, and loyalty rewards are driving most of the expansion. But even as airlines have jacked up fares and upped the baggage up-charging to offset rising fuel costs tied to the Iran war, CEO Ed Bastian said there's "broad strength across customer segments, geographies, and products."

It's not the most compelling sales pitch to say customers in an industry will grit their teeth and pay more for the same service.

But similar to the K-shaped economy, that may be a defining quality of this economic moment. And just as airlines sit at an important nexus of haves and have-nots, of affluence and price-sensitivity, carriers like Delta know that given limited consumer choice and inflation's omnipresence, it's hard for passengers to say no.

Delta's strength is even more remarkable because, putting aside the oil shock, airlines were already caught up in a miserable moment featuring a Washington funding battle that left TSA agents without pay for weeks, resulting in enormous security lines at airports, canceled flights, and customers avoiding air travel to get to their destinations.

Delta did not disclose the financial impact of the TSA disruptions. But whatever business travel slowed during the funding chaos has since been reversed, the company said. And it might get better: Recent corporate survey results cited by Delta show that 85% of respondents expect their corporate travel spend will increase or stay the same in the June quarter.

But what about the rising cost of fuel?

Read the rest here.

A crucial provision in Iran's 10-point peace plan is Tehran establishing a formal tollbooth to collect fees from ships that transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The regime has proposed charging $1 per barrel of oil for tankers passing through the waterway. In what currency will the payments be made? Cryptocurrency.

Soon after the Financial Times reported on Iran's preferred payment method, cryptocurrency prices surged.

Bitcoin gained 3% to trade above $71,700 per coin, while ethereum rose 4%, even as it was not revealed which digital currency the Iranians would accept.

While the proposal was a boon to crypto bulls, the broader proposal of fee-based passage will be hard for many oil exporters in the region to accept.

That's because such a provision would grant Iran new powers that it didn't have before the conflict began, giving the country some degree of control over energy flows in a major economic and political shift. And in doing so, giving the regime a semblance of victory in this war.

Read more.

"What we've seen is consumers are still spending, businesses are still investing ... There's a concern that maybe this will push inflation up: That's our job, we'll focus on that.

"And there's a concern that maybe the labor market isn't as solid, but we're not seeing ‌that, we're seeing it kind ⁠of settle at a good place."

—San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly to the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in Utah

Calvin Klein plays a central figure in FX/Hulu's "Love Story," the JFK Jr. and Carolyn Bessette show that landed in Q1. But it's Levi's that proved to be the unexpected benefactor from the show's stroll into '90s New York.

According to Levi's CEO Michelle Gass, the company saw a "25% increase in our iconic 517s, which were famously worn by Carolyn Bessette and prominently featured in the popular show 'Love Story.'"

Social media has foretold a "CBK summer," as people rediscover Carolyn Bessette Kennedy's iconic style. And while fashion brands come and go, this is the dividend you get for being an icon. Seasons may come and go, but if you have an icon in your portfolio, it'll have a boomerang moment if you wait long enough.

Read more.

New York Times investigative reporter John Carreyrou and AI expert Dylan Freedman dove into troves of communications from the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto in an effort to get to the bottom of bitcoin's biggest mystery: Who actually invented it?

That the report is 10,000 words adds a solid dose of uncertainty to the answer of whether the person identified, British cryptographer Dr. Adam Buck, is definitely the guy.

The investigation started with a hunch from Carreyrou and mostly looks at writing patterns — a fingerprint of sorts based on what idioms and spellings one uses — that matched up well with Buck's.

But Back has denied this, though it seems the most plausible reveal we've seen.

Does it matter? In general, you'd think not. But Back is the CEO of BSTR, which has 30,000 in bitcoin and is set to go public. Cue the securities laws.

Read more.

Economic data: Personal income, February (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); Personal spending, February (+0.5% expected, +0.4% previously); PCE price index, month-on-month, February (+0.4% expected, +0.3% previously); PCE price index, year-on-year, February (+2.8% expected, +2.8% previously); Core PCE price index, month-on-month, February (+0.4% expected, +0.4% previously); Core PCE price index, year-on-year, February (+3% expected, +3.1% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended Apr. 4 (+210,000 expected, +202,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended Mar. 28 (+1.841 million previously); GDP annualized, quarter-on-quarter, fourth quarter (+0.7% expected, +0.7% previously)

Earnings calendar: WD-40 Company (WDFC), Neogen Corporation (NEOG), BlackBerry, (BB) The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)

Friday

Economic data: CPI, month-on-month, March (+1% expected, +0.3% previously); Core CPI, month-on-month, March (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previously); CPI, year-on-year, March (+3.4% expected, +2.4% previously); Core CPI, year-on-year, March (+2.7% expected, +2.5% previously); Real average hourly earnings, year-on-year, March (+1.3% previously); Real average weekly earnings, year-on-year, March (+1.6% previously); Factory orders, February (-0.2% expected, +0.1% previously); University of Michigan sentiment, April preliminary reading (52 expected, 53.3 previously); U. Mich. current conditions, April preliminary reading (55.8 previously); U. Mich. expectations, April preliminary reading (51.7 previously); U. Mich. 1-year inflation, April preliminary reading (+3.8% previously); U. Mich. 5-10year inflation, April preliminary reading (+3.2% previously); Durable goods orders, February final reading (+0.0% previously)

Earnings calendar: Lotus Technology (LOT)

Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban.

Ethan Wolff-Mann is a Senior Editor at Yahoo Finance, running newsletters. Follow him on X @ewolffmann.

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