Argus

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Mar 18, 2026

Intermediate Term

Long Term

Summary

Stock indices remain locked within their six-month ranges, but are near the low end of those ranges. Another big/bad headline could create a serious flush, as there are likely plenty of sell stop orders just below the bottom of the ranges. The majors are also sitting just above their key 200-day averages -- and it's possible there are sell stops under the averages as well. The rising 200-day for the S&P 500 is at 6,612, while the closing low of the range from November 20 lies at 6,539. The 200-day for the Nasdaq 100 comes in at 591, while the low of the range sits at 585. As we have said, the two indices are below their key declining 21-week exponential averages, and that is an intermediate-term warning. The two indices also have kissed their lower weekly Bollinger Bands (considered support) for the first time since March 2025.  Historically, the best setup is a decline below the lower weekly band followed by a rally that recaptures the lower band. For confirmation, we like to see the indices then pop back above the middle weekly band, which is the 20-week average. These buy signals have worked quite well for decades. What we don't want to see is a break of the lower band followed

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