Bitcoin options traders are rotating back into calls, with derivatives data suggesting growing conviction that BTC can reclaim the $80,000 level before the end of the second quarter.

On-chain options platform Derive.xyz places the probability of BTC trading above $80,000 by the end of June at approximately 35%.

On 4 March 2026, BTC broke out of a symmetrical triangle that had compressed price between $63,000 and $72,000, with the breakout accompanied by elevated volume. As of March 9, BTC was trading at approximately $68,400, up 3.7% on the session, with the 50-day EMA at $74,400 representing the nearest meaningful resistance before the $80,000 zone.

Prediction market Polymarket has tracked a parallel shift in sentiment, with odds of BTC reaching $80,000 by March end rising from 20% to 39% in a single trading session, and $75,000 odds jumping from 40% to 67%. These are not institutional-grade instruments, but the velocity of the move captures how rapidly the narrative has pivoted from crash hedging to recovery positioning.

EXPLORE: Bitcoin Options Market Structure Points to Potential $60K Retest

The most actionable signal in current derivatives markets is the sharp recovery in bitcoin’s options skew. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, told CoinDesk that BTC’s seven-day and 30-day skews have rebounded from approximately -25%, the panic lows recorded in early February when BTC fell toward $25,000, to roughly +10% today. Under neutral market conditions, delta skew typically hovers between -6% and +6%. A reading of +10% places current sentiment firmly in bullish territory.

That shift indicates traders are unwinding protective put positions and rotating into upside exposure. Forster noted the recovery in skew “signals a significant shift away from aggressive downside hedging,” adding that “despite earlier fears of a catastrophic crash, derivatives markets suggest those concerns may have been overstated.” Deribit data corroborates the same directional read.

CME Group data for March expirations reinforces the picture: the call-to-put open interest ratio stands at roughly 3-to-1, with approximately $660 million in call open interest against $240 million in puts. Out-of-the-money calls are clustered between $110,000 and $220,000 strike prices, a pattern consistent with call-overwriting strategies, traders selling covered calls at elevated strikes to generate yield while holding long spot exposure. Meanwhile, a single March 27 $90,000 call represents 5,665 BTC in notional exposure, underscoring how far some participants are positioned for an extended recovery.

EXPLORE: Bitcoin Price Breakout Faces $72,000 Supply Wall

An additional technical magnet exists in the form of an unclosed CME futures gap in the $79,660–$81,210 range, left open during the early February correction. Historically, roughly 90% of CME gaps close, a statistic that Gola cited as one of the “main targets” driving the current bullish technical thesis. Support on a pullback rests at the 20-day EMA near $68,700.

If bulls secure a sustained daily close above $80,000, the next logical target is the 200-day EMA near $88,000, with the March 2025 all-time high region around $90,000 coming into view. A rejection at $80,000, however, would not simply represent a pause — it would risk reinforcing a macro supply wall that has now defined the upper boundary of two separate failed rallies. The binary is clear: confirmation above $80,000 opens a multi-week extension; failure there likely forces a retest of the $68,700–$70,000 support band.

The derivatives market’s bullish tilt faces a near-term stress test: the Federal Reserve’s March 18 rate decision. Options market structure suggests the event is a potential breakout catalyst, with implied volatility elevated enough to support long gamma positioning ahead of the announcement. A dovish surprise or a pause signal from the Fed could provide the macro tailwind the $80,000 thesis requires; a hawkish outcome risks a vol spike that resets skew back toward puts.

Institutional positioning, as reflected in hedge fund activity in bitcoin derivatives, has been tilting cautiously bullish, with smart money using elevated three-year-high volatility levels to deploy call-overwriting strategies rather than outright long delta.

Read original story Bitcoin Options Traders Are Positioning for a Break Above $80,000 by Daniel Francis at Coinspeaker.com